Can Joe "Call Me Mark Foley, Only For 5 Weeks" Negron win?

First, the State of Sunshine was going to support Joe Negron's candidacy in the Attorney General's race prior to his withdrawal. Just like Mr C at PEER Review, we believe he is an excellent replacement for Mark Foley, and will make an excellent Congressman. But can he win in 2006? Mickey Kaus at the Slate seems to think that all is not lost in Florida 16:

Majority Watch has already taken a post-resignation poll in Foley's district -- on Sunday, Oct 1. ... when [the voters] are told that a vote for "Foley" is in fact a vote for a new GOP candidate, Joe Negron. ... the result was: Mahoney (D)--49% / Foley (R)--46% Seems like a margin that can be made up in a district that, per Majority Watch, is 47-32 Republican, no?

(Thanks to the Palm Beach Post blog for the info.) This would seem counter to not only conventional wisdom, but what other bloggers and politicos are saying about the race. Bob Norman at the New Times has a post titled "Negron Screwed". The Campaign Manager is quoting House Majority Leader John Boehner's interview with Sean Hannity; Boehner wonders how voters could cast a vote for Foley's name even though it won't go to Foley. Mustang Bobby at Bark Bark Woof Wook calls it a "Tough Campaign." The Florida Kerfuffle at Blog-Stew also thinks it's hard sell. Michael Hussey at Pushing Rope is even more critical, saying that Negron is appealing to a 'narrow audience' - perhaps without realizing that the district's voter breakdown (47-32). Sure, the President has low approval ratings nationwide - even statewide - but I am willing to bet in this district, President Bush's approval ratings are not so low. While the State of Sunshine believes that its still an uphill climb - given the fact that the DCCC senses a win and the uphill battle Negron has convincing voters to vote for "Foley". It may not be a far gone conclusion just yet.