Earlier, the State of Sunshine
posted it's prediction that the Democrats will take control of the United States House of Representatives. To give you a guide to the elections, I have taken six national tracking sites and listed the top 79 races - 69 Republican seats and 10 Democratic seats.
This is a lot of information to read, but I wanted you to see how these pundits saw the races (links to their sites are listed below). Here is a quick codes to the races:
TU = Toss up (TUR = Toss Up, Tilting Republican; TUD = Toss Up, Tilting Democratic)
LeR = Leaning Republican; LiR = Likely Republican; SaR = Safe Republican
LeD = Leaning Democratic; LiD = Likely Democratic; SaD = Safe Democratic
As you can, look at the colors of the boxes... yellow is used to denote toss up races, with shades of red for Republicans and shades of blue for Democrats.
Finally, you may want to
print this page and use it on election night. If not, you can tell how big the wave will be by looking at a few states: Florida, Indiana, Kentucky, New York, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. The more Republican seats you see switching to Democrat in these six states, the larger the wave will be; and vice-versa.
(NOTE: For the real die-hards out there, CQ Politics has a very good analysis of previous elections when one party had large gains in the U.S. Congress - 1994, 1982, 1974, etc)
So, I present to you a rundown of 79 seats in the U.S. Congress -- a chart you can only find on the State of Sunshine (which makes me wish I had done this weeks ago):
| State Dist | Rep | Dem | WP | Sab | CQP | Roth | Cook | NYT |
| Ariz. 1 | Rep. Rick Renzi (i) | Ellen Simon |
| TU | TU | TUR | TU | SaR |
| Ariz. 5 | Rep. J.D. Hayworth (i) | Harry Mitchell |
| TU | TU | TUD | TU | LeR |
| Ariz. 8 | Randy Graf | Gabrielle Giffords | LeD | LiD | LeD | LiD | LeD | SaD |
| Cal. 4 | Rep. John Doolittle (i) | Charlie Brown |
| LeR | LeR | TUR | LeR | LeR |
| Cal. 11 | Rep. Richard Pombo (i) | Jerry McNerney |
| TU | LeR | TU | TU | SaR |
| Cal. 50 | Rep. Brian Bilbray (i) | Francine Busby |
| LeR | LeR | LiR | LeR | SaR |
| Colo. 4 | Marilyn Musgrave (i) | Angie Paccione | TU | TU | LeR | TUR | TU | LeR |
| Colo. 5 | Doug Lamborn | Jay Fawcett |
| LeR | LiR | LiR | LeR | LeR |
| Colo. 6 | Rep. Tom Tancredo (i) | Bill Winter |
| LeR | SaR |
|
| SaR |
| Colo. 7 | Rick O'Donnell | Ed Perlmutter | LeD | LiD | LeD | LiD | LeD | LeD |
| Conn. 2 | Rep. Rob Simmons (i) | Joe Courtney | TU | TU | LeR | TU | TU | TU |
| Conn. 4 | Rep. Chris Shays (i) | Diane Farrell | TU | TU | TU | TU | TU | TU |
| Conn. 5 | Rep. Nancy L. Johnson (i) | Chris Murphy | TU | TU | TU | TUD | TU | TU |
| Fla. 8 | Rep. Rick Keller (i) | Charlie Stuart |
| LiR | LiR |
| LiR | SaR |
| Fla. 9 | Gus Bilirakis | Phyllis Busansky |
| LiR | LiR |
| LiR | SaR |
| Fla. 13 | Vern Buchanan | Christine Jennings | TU | LeD | TU | TUD | TU | TU |
| Fla. 16 | Joe Negron | Tim Mahoney | TU | TU | LeD | TU | TU | TU |
| Fla. 22 | Rep. E. Clay Shaw Jr. (i) | Ron Klein | TU | TU | TU | TU | TU | TU |
| Ga. 8 | Mac Collins | Rep. Jim Marshall (i) |
| LeD | LeD | TUD | LeD | LeD |
| Ga. 12 | Max Burns | Rep. John Barrow (i) | TU | TU | LeD | TUD | TU | LeD |
| Id. 1 | Bill Sali | Larry Grant |
| TU | LeR | TUR | TU | LeR |
| Iowa 1 | Mike Whalen | Bruce Braley | LeD | LeD | LeD | LeD | LeD | LeD |
| Iowa 2 | Rep. Jim Leach (i) | Dave Loebsack |
| LeR | LiR |
| LiR | SaR |
| Iowa 3 | Jeff Lamberti | Rep. Leonard Boswell (i) |
| LeD | LeD | LeD | LeD | LeD |
| Ill. 6 | Peter Roskam | Tammy Duckworth | TU | TU | TU | TU | TU | TU |
| Ill. 8 | Dave McSweeney | Rep. Melissa Bean (i) | LeD | LeD | LeD | TUD | LeD | LeD |
| Ind. 2 | Rep. Chris Chocola (i) | Joe Donnelly | LeD | LeD | TU | LeD | TU | LeD |
| Ind. 3 | Rep. Mark Souder (i) | Tom Hayhurst |
| LiR | LiR |
| LiR | SaR |
| Ind. 7 | Eric Dickerson | Rep. Julia Carson (i) |
| LiD | LiD |
| LiD | LeD |
| Ind. 8 | Rep. John Hostettler (i) | Brad Ellsworth | LeD | LiD | LeD | LiD | TU | LeD |
| Ind. 9 | Rep. Mike Sodrel (i) | Baron Hill | TU | TU | TU | TUD | TU | LeD |
| Kan. 2 | Rep. Jim Ryun (i) | Nancy Boyda |
| TU | LiR | TU | TU | LeR |
| Ky. 2 | Rep. Ron Lewis (i) | Mike Weaver |
| LeR | LiR | LiR | LeR | LeR |
| Ky. 3 | Rep. Anne Northup (i) | John Yarmuth | TU | TU | LeR | TUR | TU | LeR |
| Ky. 4 | Rep. Geoff Davis (i) | Ken Lucas | TU | TU | LeR | TUR | TU | LeR |
| Lou. 3 | Craig Romero | Rep. Charlie Melancon (i) |
| LiD | LiD |
| LeD | SaD |
| Mich. 7 | Tim Walberg | Sharon Renier |
| LiR | LiR |
| LiR | SaR |
| Minn. 1 | Rep. Gil Gutknecht (i) | Tim Walz | TU | TU | LeR | TU | TU | LeR |
| Minn. 2 | Rep. John Kline (i) | Coleen Rowley |
| LiR | LiR |
|
| SaR |
| Minn. 6 | Michele Bachmann | Patty Wetterling | LeR | TU | TU | TU | TU | TU |
| Neb. 3 | Adrian Smith | Scott Kleeb |
| TU | LeR | LiR | LeR | LeR |
| Nev. 2 | Dean Heller | Jill Derby |
| LeR | LeR |
| LeR | LeR |
| Nev. 3 | Rep. Jon Porter (i) | Tessa Hafen |
| TU | LeR | TUR | TU | LeR |
| N.C. 8 | Rep. Robin Hayes (i) | Larry Kissell |
| LeR | LiR |
| LiR | SaR |
| N.C. 11 | Rep. Charles H. Taylor (i) | Heath Shuler | LeD | LeD | TU | TUD | TU | LeD |
| N.H. 1 | Rep. Jeb Bradley (i) | Carol Porter-Shea |
| LiR | LiR |
| LiR | SaR |
| N.H. 2 | Rep. Charles Bas (i) | Paul Hodes |
|
| TU | TUD | TU | TU |
| N.J. 7 | Rep. Mike Ferguson (i) | Linda Stender |
| LeR | LeR | LeR | LeR | SaR |
| N.M. 1 | Rep. Heather Wilson (i) | Patricia Madrid | TU | TU | TU | TU | TU | TU |
| N.Y. 3 | Rep. Peter King (i) | Dave Mejias |
| LiR | LiR |
| LiR | SaR |
| N.Y. 19 | Rep. Sue Kelly (i) | John Hall |
| TU | LeR | LiR | LeR | LeR |
| N.Y. 20 | Rep. John Sweeney (i) | Kirsten Gillibrand |
| TU | TU | TUD | TU | TU |
| N.Y. 24 | Ray Meier | Michael Arcuri | LeD | LeD | TU | TUD | LeD | LeD |
| N.Y. 25 | Rep. Jim Walsh (i) | Dan Maffei |
| TU | LiR | TUR | LeR | LeR |
| N.Y. 26 | Rep. Thomas Reynolds (i) | Jack Davis | LeR | TU | LeD | TU | TU | LeR |
| N.Y. 29 | Rep. Randy Kuhl (i) | Eric Massa |
| LeR | LeR | TUR | LeR | LeR |
| Ohio 1 | Rep. Steve Chabot (i) | John Cranley | TU | TU | TU | TU | TU | LeR |
| Ohio 2 | Rep. Jean Schmidt (i) | Victoria Wulsin |
| TU | TU | TU | TU | LeR |
| Ohio 6 | Chuck Blasdel | Charlie Wilson |
| LiD | LiD |
| LiD | SaD |
| Ohio 12 | Rep. Pat Tiberi (i) | Bob Shamansky |
| LiR | LiR | LeR | LiR | SaR |
| Ohio 15 | Rep. Deborah Pryce (i) | Mary Jo Kilroy | TU | TU | TU | LeD | TU | TU |
| Ohio 18 | Joy Padgett | Zack Space | LeD | LeD | LeD | LeD | LeD | LeD |
| Penn. 4 | Rep. Melissa Hart (i) | Jason Altmire |
| TU | LeR | TU | TU | LeR |
| Penn. 6 | Rep. Jim Gerlach (i) | Lois Murphy | TU | LeD | TU | TU | TU | TU |
| Penn. 7 | Rep. Curt Weldon (i) | Joe Sestak | LeD | LeD | LeD | LeD | TU | LeD |
| Penn. 8 | Rep. Michael G. Fitzpatrick (i) | Patrick Murphy | TU | TU | TU | TU | TU | LeR |
| Penn. 10 | Rep. Don Sherwood (i) | Chris Carney | LeD | LeD | LeD | LeD | TU | LeD |
| Texas 17 | Van Taylor | Rep. Chet Edwards (i) |
| LiD | LiD |
| LeD | SaD |
| Texas 22 | Shelley Sekula-Gibbs | Nick Lampson | LeR | TU | LeD | TU | TU | TU |
| Texas 23 | Rep. Henry Bonilla (i) | Ciro Rodriguez |
| LeR | LiR | LeR | LeR | SaR |
| Vt AL | Martha Rainville | Peter Welch |
| LiD | LeD | LiD | LeD | LeD |
| Va. 2 | Rep. Thelma D. Drake (i) | Phil Kellam | TU | TU | LeR | TU | TU | TU |
| Va. 10 | Rep. Frank Wolf (i) | Judy Feder |
| LeR | LiR |
| LiR | SaR |
| Wash. 5 | Rep. Cathy McMorris (i) | Peter Goldmark |
| LeR | LiR |
| LiR | LeR |
| Wash. 8 | Rep. Dave Reichert (i) | Darcy Burner | LeR | TU | TU | TUR | LeR | SaD |
| Wisc. 8 | John Gard | Steve Kagen | LeR | TU | TU | TU | TU | TU |
| WV 1 | Chris Wakim | Rep. Alan Mollohan (i) |
| LiD | LiD |
| LiD | SaD |
| WV 2 | Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (i) | Mike Callaghan |
| LiR | LiR |
| LiR | SaR |
| Wy. AL | Rep. Barbara Cubin (i) | Gary Trauner |
| TU | TU | LiR | TU | TU |
|
|
| WP = Washington Post |
| Sab = Larry Sabato |
| CQP = CQ Politics |
| Roth = Stu Rothenberg |
| Cook = Charlie Cook (PDF) |
| NYT = New York Times |
<< Home