Record Gas Prices in Florida -- Effects on Republicans?

AAA reported today that Florida's gas prices has hit a record high of $3.00 per gallon. The first time that statewide average has topped the $3 mark. TV stations are reporting it first: CBS 4 in Orlando is just one. WESH 2 in Tallahassee has the effects of gas prices on Florida's tourism industry:

Florida's gas prices hit an all-time record high over the weekend.The statewide average for regular unleaded is now $3 a gallon, WESH 2 News reported.Florida tourism officials have been stressing for the past few years that rising gas prices wouldn't affect the state's No. 1 industry, but the numbers are starting to paint a different picture. ... The state tourism marketing agency found in a recent survey that more than four out of 10 tourists are staying closer to home this year and not driving to Florida.The fuel costs' effect on airfare also seems to be having an impact. Tampa International is down 75,000 passengers from this time last year.Hotels on the Space Coast said it's been the worst July in years, with occupancy rates off by 15 percent. Other parts of the state report similar drop-offs.

Okay, so consider that we have hit $3 per gallon just before school starts. We haven't hit the middle of the hurricane season. We don't know where the Isreal-Hezbollah conflict will go. We don't know what will happen with Iran's nuclear ambitions. Gas prices could go even higher. If Democrats are smart, Republicans should be scared. Voters vote based on their pocketbooks. Higher property taxes. Higher mortgage rates. Higher insurance premiums. Higher gas prices. That is a difficult list to ignore. And the Republican answer will always start with "Yeah, but..." There is no denying that we are paying more for those items listed above than we were in the past. If Democrats can find a coherent way to point the finger at Republicans, this could be a VERY long election for the Grand Old Party. Then again, that is a VERY BIG IF. The Democrats haven't been able to find a coherent message... even with Tom Tom pointing the way. Makes you think the Marx brothers are running the Democratic Party. Those of us in the GOP need to whistle by the graveyard here...

How conservative are Republican primary voters, really?

Okay. So let me be the first to say that I do not like to agree with S.V. (don't call me Sharish) Dáte of the Palm Beach Post. He has to be among the most liberal reporters in the Tallahassee press corps - and I am none to sure of the 'objectivity' in his reporting. But today he has two stories on which I do agree: Gallagher's strategy of playing to the right is wrong route and Politicos see Gallagher's ethics scrapes as grist for Crist to protect huge lead. In the first article, Dáte points out that Gallagher has been campaigning hard for the conservative base. His campaign has bragged about 'microtargeting'. His commercials focus on his family, and he has one now that is chock full of red meat for Christian conservatives: abortion, adult billboards, gay marriage, and more. Still, he trails Crist by 30 points in the independent polls, and by more than 20 points in his own internal polling. How can this be? First, I will say that Dáte managed to get a great quote from former Republican Party of Florida chairman Tom Slade: "I think the tolerance of the Republican Party for the intolerance of the Religious Right is wearing thin." Amazing. Second, I would add that most people are more libertarian than conservative. That means the tagline of "less government, less taxes, less regulation, more freedom" (first espoused by former Senator Connie Mack and carried forward this year by Charlie Crist) is the true mantra of those registered in the Republican party. The second article picks up on Gallagher's ethics charges. I've written about this, but Dáte and Brian Crowley show the real effect on Gallagher's campaign:

"It makes the hill a whole lot steeper to climb," said former Florida GOP Chairman Tom Slade, an early Gallagher supporter.

Slade said that, if the Crist campaign decides to use the ethics commission finding against Gallagher, there would be little Gallagher could do to respond. "It's rough to defend yourself against," he said.

The timing of the report, just weeks before the Sept. 5 primary, also is a problem, Slade said.

"It ain't ever good news," Slade said. "But a month or so before the election, that's even worse news."

So, how will Gallagher spend his limited resources from this point forward? Continue a failing strategy? Try to defend himself from himself? I'm willing to bet, now - more than a month before the election, that Gallagher's advisors have made a major error in judgement. The primary voters are not as conservative as they thought. And neither is the rest of the state.

"Stick Your Head In An Oven Bad"

That was Crist supporter and long-time Republican heavyweight Mac Stipanovich's description of Tom Gallagher in the Palm Beach Post Blog (Q). No, he was not talking about Crist's massive fundraising advantage. No, he was not talking about how Crist received another boost by getting $1.8 million in state matching money, $500,000 more than Gallagher. No, he was not talking about Crist's discussion of civil unions, gay marriage, and gay adoption. Nope. He was talking about this:

The Florida Ethics Commission on Friday found probable cause that state Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher violated state law on at least four instances when he bought the stocks of four companies that either had state contracts or were regulated by Gallagher’s office. (St. Petersburg Times)

This is yet another blow to the 2nd place Gallagher campaign. "The hits just keep on coming" for Gallagher. First came this headline from the Ft. Myers: Gallagher admits to pot use, infidelity. Now this headline from the St. Peterburg Times: Tom Gallagher to face ethics charges. It doesn't matter that most of the ethics charges were dismissed. Just like it doesn't matter that his pot use and infidelity happened almost 30 years ago. Voters don't have time to listen to explanations. They will see headlines, especially when used by 527s to attack Gallagher. It's the difference between a 1 minute argument and a 1 hour argument. Mac's been around for some time. I'm thinking he could be right.

Can Democrats Take Back the U.S. House? Is Florida a Battleground?

I have heard many news accounts showing the 'generic' poll question. "The generic poll question asks respondents which party they plan to vote for in the upcoming congressional election. These generic polls can provide crucial clues regarding the timing of the electorate’s shift from the presidential or “in” party to the “out” party." (Taken from a Columbia University blog) Gallup noted at the beginning of July that the Democrats hold a 10% lead on this question: The Democratic Party continues to hold a sizeable lead over the Republicans in Gallup's ongoing tracking of public preferences for the fall congressional elections. According to the latest survey, conducted July 6-9, 2006, 51% of registered voters plan to vote for the Democratic candidate in their district and 41% plan to vote for the Republican. However, the problem that everyone points out is this generic question does not allow the voters to take the specific choices they have into account. It is also a national poll, and Congressional elections are purely localized events. National modeling is not a good predictor of individual races. But, as noted on the Columbia blog, this question does show the trends in the electorate -- which has been shifting more and more towards the Democrats. I have written about his before: first considering the Democrats are matching or exceeding Republicans in fundraising, and then to show how Republicans in Congress could hurt Republicans in Florida. On JaxGOP's blog, he and I even briefly debated this "shift" in the electorate via the comments section. In fact, earlier this year, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, architect of the last time control switched parties (1994's Republican Revolution) has noted there are a lot of similarities between 2006 and 1994. (Newt's website has two articles on this, from NewsMax and from the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.) Now, National Public Radio has commissioned a more specific poll than the generic version.

With Election Day just a little more than three months away, the Morning Edition polling team was asked to take the pulse of likely voters in the most competitive districts across the country.

Democrat Stan Greenberg and Republican Glenn Bolger found that, while republicans do a little bit better with these voters than they do in a nationwide sample, the numbers still point to trouble for the party in power.

In the 50 districts - 40 Republican and 10 Democrat - (12 of which are open seats) they consider 'most competitive', Republicans won by a combined 12% in 2004. The poll shows that Democrats would win by a combined 6%. The numbers were roughly the same when asked about party - or about specific candidates who are actually running where the respondents lived. Moreover, less than 1 in 5 voters in both parties are likely to change their mind before election day. NPR posted their actual poll results (PDF) so you can read some of the more interesting questions. So, what does all of this mean for Florida. First, it could mean that we might be talking about Klein, Jennings, and Busansky winning their races for Congress. We might also see Chagnon and Mahoney beat Mica and Foley respectively. Something that I didn't think could happen not so long ago. Next, consider the impact on other parts of the ticket - especially when combined with the ever expanding insurance crisis. The GOP's headliner is likely to be Katherine Harris, a fact that does not exude confidence. For Governor, Charlie Crist has a commanding lead at this point; his critics point out that he does not excite the conservative base. At the cabinet level we have impeachment prosecutor Bill McCollum, so voters get to relive that all over again. We will also probably have Tom Lee as the C.F.O. nominee. In a year where turn out will be the most important factor, the GOP will have two candidates tied to past controversies (impeachment and Bush v Gore) and other candidates who are not known to be George W. Bush conservatives. Given the shift in the electorate, the shockwaves could reach far from Washington DC, through Tallahassee, to cities and counties across Florida. I'm glad I'm not running this year.

Paving Paradise to Put Up a Parking Lot

Okay, so I don't really like the Big Yellow Taxi song - the Joni Mitchell, Amy Grant, Counting Crows, or whoever versions. But somehow that line makes some sense with Tampa Bay's traffic planners. First, consider the projects currently underway: Malfunction Junction, I-4 from 14th to 50th streets, and the Links project on State Road 60 from I-275 to and including part of the Courtney Campbell Causeway. Not to mention that the start of the second part of the Links project (I-275 from the Howard Franklin Bridge to the Hillsborough River) has been pushed back a year because the lowest bid was too high. Those are just the Tampa Interstate projects! The Expressway Authority with FDOT already has plans to build the I-4/Crosstown Connector. Now comes word (with thanks to Sticks of Fire blog for pointing this out today) that they want to build an eastern beltway from the I-75/I-275 interchange in Manatee county, around Brandon and New Tampa, into Pasco County to link with the Suncoast Parkway. The I-4 Connector and the Beltway will be toll roads. As will other projects around the state as we continue to grow. Consider this from a recent Sarasota Herald-Tribune article:

As Florida searches for ways to improve and expand its increasingly burdened highway network, expect tollways to become more plentiful and popular. And, for these new expressways to become viable alternatives to older, overcrowded roads, good customer service will be essential. "In any urbanized area in Florida, there's a potential for toll roads," [James Ely executive director of Florida's Turnpike Enterprise] said at an Argus Foundation luncheon. "I think we're going to see more in our future."

All of these plans are being made at the state level - by the Florida Department of Transportation, the Florida Turnpike Authority, and the Tampa/Hillsborough Expressway Authority (a state-created entity). That is because, as was recently pointed out in a Blurbex blog post, Hillsborough County leaders are busy solving the real problems facing us today: homosexuals and nudity.

Once we unclog the highways of perverts, commies and homos, you will be able to drive down Dale Mabry Highway in Tampa or State Road 60 in Brandon at 5 o’clock rush hour without so much as tapping your brakes once.

And you thought the Hillsborough County Commission wasn’t doing any thing productive.

I don't know if this year's election will bring any change. No discussion of any solution to our transportation problem. No discussion of intermodal transportation alternatives. Only years of construction as more asphalt is laid down. What's next, all the trees in a tree museum? Just don't have any displays of gay or nude trees, or the County Commission may come after you.

Overlooked Part of Insurance Crisis

This week, Governor Bush took a step to start solving one part of the insurance crisis. This is from a St. Petersburg Times story.

Gov. Jeb Bush said Wednesday that he will ask the state Cabinet next week to consider creating a new statewide pool for businesses that can't find property insurance.

Bush said he's intrigued by an idea to resurrect a dormant state law that would create an insurer for business not unlike Citizens Property Insurance Corp., which is geared largely toward the residential market.

Okay. So to have a state-run insurance company as a last resort for businesses is okay. But the governor has said otherwise about home owners policies: "But what we're not going to do is have the government be the insurer of wind -- first resort, middle resort or last resort. Some folks out there would have suggestions that would lead down that path." (taken from Miami Herald article.) Hmm. Interesting. It's not that I think the Democrat's propsal is the answer, but its better than anything the Republicans have tried. They propose to use an entity like Citizens to ensure some portion of windstorm coverage - say up to the first $100,000. Private companies would then cover damage over that amount. Republicans, however, don't seem to have any real ideas. First, Attorney General Charlie Crist has said that the Democratic idea has some merit. He has not yet come out with his proposal to fix the insurance crisis. The second candiate, Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher - who has overseen the insurance first as Insurance Commissioner in the early 1990's and later as C.F.O. (Both the Hurricane Catastrophe Fund and Citizens were Gallagher ideas) - recently unveiled his proposals: expand Citizens to include businesses, then lower the threshhold for the Catastrophe Fund to cover insurers losses from the current $5.3 billion to $3 billion. One thing is certain, someting HAS to happen. The Herald's editorial says it all: Insurance crisis now, calamity tomorrow. I agree that Bush should not call a special session until there is some agreement on what to do... but if something dire happens and Florida takes another major hit from one or more storms this hurricane season -- we might see a revolution brewing among the voters, leading to major upheaval at the ballot box.

Conspiracy Theory Running Around the Blogosphere

Okay, so conspiracy theories are part and parcel of blogs... practically a requirement that if you have a blog you must espouse some kind of conspiracy theory. However, some fairly good bloggers have all ran with a story that appeared in the Pensacola News Journal. I can say that I've heard off-line from a few more people. JaxGOP, Flablog, Can't Keep Quiet, and The Florida Masochist have all posted about this: 1. Katherine Harris will win the primary for U.S. Senate. 2. Tom Gallagher will lose the primary for Governor. 3. Katherine Harris will quit the U.S. Senate race - for health reasons. 4. Tom Gallagher will be appointed by the Republican Party of Florida to take her place. Whomever started such a rumor -- and it may be more than one person -- really needs to consider this again. First, Bill Nelson has at least $12 million in cash on hand. The only candidate with more cash on hand than he has? Hillary Clinton. A newly appointed Gallagher would have $0 in his account. Remember, it is very hard to raise $12 million (or more) in less than two months. Second, the National Republican Senatorial Committee had less than $20 million cash available as of June 30th. To be sure, the RNC has some extra cash ($45 million), but they will be looking at the bigger picture for both the House and Senate. On the flip side, the Democrat Senatorial Campaign Committee has more than $37 million cash, even if the DNC has only $10 million. Next, let's consider the fact that Congresswoman Harris would have to quit. Ha! Say whatever you want about her, but she is not a quitter. However, let's say she will quit. She can't "slow down" before the primary -- and she can't suddenly drop out right after the primary. There will need to be some lag time to make this really sound viable. So, Nelson and the DSCC will have a substantial financial advantage. A Gallagher loss means he could not overcome Crist's much smaller advantage. What makes anyone think Gallagher, appointed a considerable time after the primary, could come close to competing with Nelson financially? Not to mention that Gallagher would have some delay in ramping up his campaign. No. Gallagher was shafted in 2000, when he would have easily beat Nelson. This scenario is really just some Republicans grasping at straws, hoping against hope that they can find some way to beat Nelson. But man it's fun to read on the blogs!!

This Weeks Polls: Crist and Davis are Way Out Front

Many bloggers have written about this week's polls in the Florida Governor's race (Flablog, Interstate4Jamming, & JaxGOP -- among the news blogs). All three polls show very similar results: Strategic Vision Charlie Crist 57% Tom Gallagher 29% Undecided 14% Jim Davis 40% Rod Smith 35% Undecided 25% Mason-Dixon Charlie Crist 55% Tom Gallagher 24% Undecided 21% Jim Davis 29% Rod Smith 14% Undecided 57% Quinnipiac Univesity Charlie Crist 55% Tom Gallagher 32% Undecided 13% Jim Davis 47% Rod Smith 19% Undecided 33% The consistency of the Republican numbers is actually key. To be sure, I expect the race to be a heck of a lot closer than these polls -- but all three show Crist with a lead greater than the number of undecided voters. That can not be good for the Gallagher campaign. Heck, Crist is winning by at least 15% even if one assumes the margin of error for each poll was entirely in his favor. As a political scientist, I can say these surveys can be fairly accurate. NPR has a good interview from September 2004 with Frank Newport, head of the Gallup Organization, on the accuracy of political polls. It also talks about how pollster determine a "likely voter" using questions, that are fairly good predictors for likeliness of voting. In the end, it would seem that we will be watching Charlie Crist vs Jim Davis this fall.

A look at the ballot: State Legislature

With the close of the qualifying period last week, I thought it would be a decent time to give an overview of the state legislative races. I won't try to get into much prognostication at this point, but it is safe to assume that the Republican Party will retain majorities in both chambers. Here is what we know so far: In the Florida Senate, 20 of the 40 seats are up for election this year. Of those, 7 seats are open because the incumbent could not seek re-election due to term limits or is running for higher office. The 13 incumbents include 11 Republicans and 2 Democrats. Both Democrats and five of the Republicans were re-elected without opposition. Two more Republicans face token opposition from either a write-in or a minor party candidate. Of the remaining four Republican incumbents, two face a Republican in the primary with only a write-in or independent in the general; and two face an actual Democratic challenger. In the seven open seats, four were held by a Democrat and three by a Republican. In the four Democratic seats, only one seat drew Republican candidates. The remaining Democratic open seats feature Democrats facing each other in the primary, with minor party or write-in candidates in the general election. In the three Republican seats, one Republican was elected without opposition, while the remaining two drew both Republicans and Democrats. So, out of 20 seats up for election this November, exactly 5 feature both Democrat and Republican candidates. When you factor in the party breakdown of the senators not up for election this year, 12 Republicans and 8 Democrats, it's clear that the Republicans will hold their majority. Current Breakdown: 22 Republicans, 13 Democrats, 5 Unknown. All 120 seats in the Florida House of Represenatives are up this year. Of that number, 32 are open due to term limits or the incumbent running for higher office. There are 88 incumbent House members running for re-election. Out of the 67 Republican incumbents, 29 were re-elected without opposition and 9 more only have a write in candidate. In opposed races, 21 Republican incumbents will face a Democrat (three races have two Democrats vying for the nomination), 3 Republicans will face a Democrat and a minor party candidate, 2 face primary opposition with a write-in candidates, 2 more face only primary opposition, and the remaining incumbent will face a primary opponent and a Democrat. On the Democratic side, 13 of 21 incumbents were re-elected because no opponent qualified and 1 more drew a write-in opponent. Only three Democrats drew Republicans, and two of them also drew primary opposition. Two more Democrats will face only a write in candidate, while the remaining two will only face a fellow Democrat. Two of the 32 open seats were won without opposition, one Republican and one Democrat. Seventeen of the remaining seats were held by Republicans. In those seats, 10 have multiple Republicans facing at least one Democrat, three have multiple Republicans facing a Democrat and either a write in or a minor party candidates, two more have one Republican against a Democrat, and the last two feature a Republican against a minor party candidate. In the 13 remaining Democrat seats, five seats feature Democratic candidates competing to face a write-in, five more feature multiple Democrats facing at least one Republican or a Republican and a minor party or write in candidates, two feature one Democrat fighting to face at least one Republican, and finally one last seat features only two Democrats. Now, that is a complex way to break down the House -- but there are bound to be more permutations with 120 seats versus 20 seats. Current Breakdown: 45 Republicans, 34 Democrats, 41 Unknown. I will take a closer look at the breakdown after the primary - looking at campaign finance reports and how the district has voted in the past. Generally, I believe the House and Senate will remain in Republican control for the forseeable future.

The Democratic Debate

I am not sure why Bay News 9 felt that a debate on a Saturday evening was a good idea, but I happened to be home so I watched. First, in the interest of disclosure, I am a Republican -- so I may not have the most objective perspective on this debate. However, I would say this: Rod Smith did well, probably "won" the debate with a style that was friendlier and more composed. Jim Davis sounded like an angry man who will try to bully the Republican legislature. Both men were able to hit the hot button issues for Democrats: off shore drilling, education 'reform', Medicaid changes, felon voting rights, etc. Platitudes were met with applause, as would be expected. On the issues, there is very little difference between these two Democrats. But then, this wasn't really a debate about the issues... it was a debate about how each man would approach his role as governor. In that respect, I think Senator Smith won. His answers seemed to be more pragmatic than ideological. He sounds not only able, but willing to reach out to Republicans to work on solutions. Davis sounded like he would use his position as governor to build public support for his issues and use that as leverage to move the legislature. Keep dreaming. I think I could live with Smith as governor - maybe more so than Gallagher. Maybe. And I don't think I am alone in that respect. A Rod Smith nomination should scare Republicans -- at least make sure that the Republican candidate has to work that much harder. For those who didn't get the chance to see the debate, and if you live in the Tampa Bay area, I believe it will be available on Bright House Networks' Tampa Bay on Demand service (channel 340). I could be wrong, but Bay News 9 has their most recent Political Connections interviews viewable there.

Flash from the Past!

As per my usual, I was checking out the local news sites' political stories. The St. Pete Times has a story today about the race for Florida House District 52. In general it was an merely intersting article - until I read the following:

"Door-knocking is more important than money," said Ed Armstrong, a lawyer from Clearwater long active in local politics.

He pointed to the House District 54 race four years ago in which John Carassas, then a 34-year-old assistant city attorney for Clearwater, beat Dave Miller, a retired Florida Power Corp. executive who had the support of state Rep. Dennis Jones, simply by blanketing the district door to door.

Hey! That was me! Or rather, I managed that campaign. The John Carassas campaign was the most fun I had as a campaign manager, especially because we really were the underdog. We knew that Jones and Miller were long-time friends, and that they would raise more money -- especially from the Tallahassee "establishment". Jones also had Senator Jim King working for Miller (King grew up in St. Pete). There was no way Carassas could go toe-to-toe with Miller in an air-war. So we played an agressive ground game. From April to August, John and his volunteers knocked on doors in every precinct in District 54 - from Clearwater Beach to Seminole to Gulfport to Tierra Verde. Do you know how hard it is to go door-to-door along the beaches in the summer time? Obviously our hard work paid off, but it helped to have a great candidate. John had significant experience as an attorney for the City of Clearwater. He understood many of the issues -- which helped him earn the endorsement from the Police Officers and Fire Fighters. He also had some of the Clearwater establishment (like Mr. Armstrong) on his side. John also won the primary and runoff endorsements of the St. Petersburg Times. Now, one would assume that having such a liberal paper pick you would be a negative in a Republican Primary. Well, since there were no one in other parties -- this race also featured an unknown pilot named Dan Curran and the current Pinellas County Republican Chairman Tony DiMatteo -- Democrats could vote in this race!! The result in the primary: Miller only won by 134 votes -- despite having significantly more money and being the presumed heir apparent. So John and Dave went to the run-off -- the last run off election held in Florida. At that point, John's "surprising" showing in the primary shifted the momentum in his favor. Many local politicos started reading the writing on the wall - and supported Carassas. John won 56.5% to 43.5%. After the election, among the many congratulations letters John received, was one from Senator Jim King. I don't recall the exact wording of the whole letter, but he was surprised and amazed at our success despite the interests arrayed against us. But Ed Armstrong is right -- John would not have been in that position had he not committed to an agressive ground game. We walked all of the precincts by early August, and focused on the top 10 precincts for the rest of the month. It was just interesting to see THAT race used as an example of how hard work can beat money in an election. Oh, and one more note. Dave Miller's campaign consultant firm was the Mallard Group. They are great professionals - and I am sorry to have beaten them. However, the ironic thing here is that the consultant working with Miller was none other than Peter Schorsch the blogger at St. Petersblog!

Tampa Bay Local Candidates' Websites

Bob O'Malley at O'Blog has compiled a two solid lists of the candidates for federal and state offices. Tommy at Sticks of Fire found the lists and wrote about them on that site. His work inspired me to compile a list for County Commission and School Board candidates in Hernando, Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, Sarasota Counties. As this is qualifying week, I will update this post with the official list of candidates, so bookmark this page!! PLEASE NOTE: If you know a candidate has a website, and I don't have the link, email me. Forgive the length of this post, but there are a lot of candidates in these seven counties. HERNANDO County Commissioner District 2 Hubert Dukes (DEM) Ronnie Mclean (DEM) Augustino Peretti (REP) Hannah "Nancy" Robinson (REP) Rose Rocco (DEM) County Commissioner District 4 Sindra Ridge (DEM) David D. Russell (REP) Jamie Wrye (DEM) School Board Member District 1 Richard McDermott (NPA) Michael Ransaw (NPA) John Sweeney (NPA) Robert Wiggins (NPA) School Board Member District 3 Dianne Bonfield (NPA) Maricriss Dausch (NPA) John Druzbick (NPA) School Board Dist 5 Sandra Nicholson (NPA) HILLSBOROUGH County Commissioner District 1 Rose V. Ferlita (REP) Don Kruse (REP) Gary Santti (REP) Brad Swanson (REP) Steven A. Eckstein (DEM) Mary Mulhern (DEM) County Commissioner District 3 Kenneth "Ken" Anthony (REP) Dorothy "Nicolle" Admire (DEM) Chloe J. Coney (DEM) Kevin White (DEM) John Michael Craig (NPA) County Commissioner District. 4 Al Higginbotham (REP) Lisa Rodriguez (DEM) James Rowell (DEM) Jean Batronie (NPA) County Commissioner District 5 Jim Norman (REP) Joe Redner (DEM) Yamel Christina Arronte (NPA) County Commissioner District 7 Mark Sharpe (REP) Thomas Scott (DEM) School Board Member, District 2 Bart Birdsall (NPA) Logan Cobb (NPA) Candy Olson (NPA) School Board Member, District 4 Jennifer Faliero (NPA) Hunter Gambrell (NPA) School Board Member, District 6 Ken Allen (NPA) Stephanie Desmarais Georgiades (NPA) April Griffin (NPA) David L. Schmidt (NPA) Alene D. Atkins (NPA) MANATEE County Commissioner District 2 Gwendolyn Y. Brown(DEM) County Commissioner District 4 Ron Getman (REP) Joe Shea (DEM) County Commissioner District 6 Frank Brunner (REP) Stella K. Burnett (REP) Craig A. Trigueiro (REP) Carol Whitmore (REP) Sarah C. Meaker (DEM) School Board Member District 1 David M. Bailey (NPA) Barbara A. Harvey (NPA) School Board Member District 3 Steven A. Cecil (NPA) Robert Drane (NPA) Jane R. Pfeilsticker (NPA) School Board Member District 4 James Ferguson (NPA) Bob C. Gause (NPA) Joseph C. Miller, Jr (NPA) School Board Member District 5 Maynard J. Boyce (NPA) Walter E. Miller (NPA) PASCO County Commissioner District 2 Larry Gilbert DeLucenay (REP) John Edward Horan III (REP) Patricia (Pat)Mulieri EdD. (REP) Christie Zimmer (REP) County Commissioner District 4 Nicole Deg (DEM) Steve Simon (REP) School Board Member District 1 Allen Altman (NPA) Willie B. Broner, Jr. (NPA) Cathi Compton (NPA) School Board Member District 3 Michele Chamberlin (NPA) Renee H. Jonas (NPA) Cathi Martin (NPA) Deborah (Susie)McDowell (NPA) Michael Siemion (NPA) School Board Member District 5 Frank Parker (NPA) Tami L. Paxton (NPA) Lance A. Shortt (NPA) PINELLAS County Commissioner District 2 Calvin D. Harris (DEM) Norman Todd Roche (DEM) County Commissioner District 4 Raymond Brooks (REP) Susan Latvala (REP School Board District 2 Nancy Bostock (NPA) Chris Hardman (NPA) Mary Russell (NPA) School Board District 3 Richard J. Bergeron (NPA) Marti (Martha H.)Folwell (NPA) Sean O'Flannery (NPA) Peggy O'Shea (NPA) Janice Starling (NPA) Lewis Williams (NPA) School Board District 6 Jack Killingsworth (NPA) Linda Lerner (NPA) Carl Neumann (NPA) School Board District 7 Mary L. T. Brown (NPA) Jennifer S. Crockett (NPA) Minetha L. Morris (NPA) Sheldon A. Schwartz (NPA) Ray Tampa (NPA) POLK County Commissioner District 2 Russell "Rusty" Boedicker (DEM) Robert Connors (DEM) Dave Hallock (REP) Betty Hill (REP) Leslie McCutchin (REP) Ken Richardson (REP) Randy Wilkinson (REP) County Commissioner District 4 Bruce L. Parker (REP) Jean Reed (DEM) Martha Santiago (REP) School Board Member District 3 Hazel Sellers (NPA) School Board Member District 5 Kay Fields (NPA) Ricky F. Shirah (NPA) School Board Member District 6 Margaret A. Lofton (NPA) School Board Member District 7 Tim Harris (NPA) SARASOTA County Commissioner District 2 Joseph A. Barbetta (REP) John P. Lewis (REP) Casey Pilon (REP) Mike Bowers (WRI) County Commissioner District 4 Nora Patterson (REP) School Board Member District 1 Lisa A. Glenn (NPA) Kirk A. Reid (NPA) Tammy St Mary (NPA) Carol Todd (NPA) School Board Member District 2 Larry Helmuth (NPA) Robert W. Long (NPA) Caroline G. Zucker (NPA) School Board Member District 4 Shirley Brown (NPA) Carol D. Williams (NPA) School Board Member District 5 Kathy Kleinlein (NPA) James Lawless (NPA) Source: I used Google and the Aggregate Yahoo and Google Add-on for my Browser (Firefox). For my search, I used this suntax: Candidate Name Commission OR Candidate Name School Board. This returned the first page of results for both Yahoo and Google. If the candidate has a website, chances are it would be listed among those results. It is, however, possible that more candidates have sites that did not rank high enough to make the first page of Yahoo or Google.

Qualifying - n. The act of filing to be on the ballot

This is the week for most state and local candidates to "qualify" for the ballot, meaning they are filing their official papers. Senate and Congressional candidates, along with most judicial candidates, qualified in May. This qualifying period ends at Noon on Friday. The run for office, you file paperwork at any time before the election designating that you are raising money in an effort to further your candidacy. Then you file additional paperwork during the qualifying period that officially puts your name on the ballot. Going in to this qualifying period, there are still a number of candidates in the Bay Area that are unopposed. I will write more during the week, especially when the period closes on Friday. You can always check the websites below for lists of candidates:

• Florida Division of Elections
• Hillsborough County Supervisor of Elections
• Pinellas County Supervisor of Elections
• Polk County Supervisor of Elections
• Pasco County Supervisor of Elections
• Hernando County Supervisor of Elections
• Manatee County Supervisor of Elections
• Sarasota County Supervisor of Elections

The Minor Leauges of Politics

Robert at Interstate4Jamming has a good post today about how to grow a political party, although he is talking about the Democratic party.

It is imperative that we as Democrats on the local level change our mind-set and begin concentrating more on discussing and sharing with our constituents where we stand on back yard items. City and county government is not only where we find our bench for future legislators and congressional representatives, but also --- to use the words of University of South Florida Professor Susan McManus --- "Historically, most of the great ideas about new policies have always come from the bottom up. The state and local governments have always been the labatories of democracy."

He is right that local government politicians tend to be among the first to run for state and national level politics... at least those not named Bush, Kennedy, or Clinton. Here in the Bay area, the local Republican party has had better success at getting candidates elected to local office. Critics of the system will talk about how gerrymandering has made so many seats as a virtual lock for one party or another. I disagree with that statement. To be sure, a handful of seats across the state are safe for one party or the other, but others could go either way depending on the candidates. State house seats in the area can be quite competitive when they open again. District 57 (South Tampa, Town N Country, Westchase) is currently held by Republican Faye Culp - a moderate Republican who is very popular in her district. A Democrat will have a hard time beating her, but that is not because of gerrymandering. When the seat opens in 2010, it is within the realm of possibility for the Democrats to take this seat. The same holds true for District 48 (Carrollwood, Lutz, Citrus Park) held by Republican Kevin Ambler, District 60 (New Tampa, Lutz, Temple Terrace) held by Republican Ed Homan. When they leave due to term limits in 2012 the districts will be re-drawn. The right Democrat could win either seat. I would even venture to say that the right Republican could win District 58 (West Tampa, Town N Country). There is one major problem with this concept: the 'right' person for the district is all too often not right for their party. Too often, party leaders - and the groups that help fund elections - prefer their candidates to be ideologues who hold fast to a specific set of principles. While we may hear that one or the other party wants to be a "big tent party," where differences of opinion can exist, the opposite is really true. What happens when a Republican Senator votes against the class-size and voucher amendments? The establishment recruits and funds a Republican candidate to oppose him. What happens when a Republican votes against a tort reform effort? The business community offers money to any Republican that will run against him. What happens when a Democrat supports vouchers? The education lobby looks for another candidate in that seat. There is a flip side to this as well. Let's say there's a solid Democrat who is very pro-business. The business community groups will not help elect that Democrat, out of fear that the Republican leaders would shut them out of the public policy development process. If they fund a Democrat, Republicans will see that as opposing their candidate and act accordingly. President Bush used a phrase that seems to be appropriate when describing special interest groups: "If you're not with us, you're against us." This kind absolute partisanship has prompted many leaders to form their own groups: Its My Party Too organized by moderate Republicans, the Blue Dog Coalition of Democrats in Congress. Without organizing and finding strength in numbers, pragmatic members of either party who vote against their party or special interest leaders would be alone on a limb. So, I agree with Robert that the best way to build a party is to work hard to get candidates elected at the state and local levels. However, I would add that all too often, the parties themselves provide a block to doing that. This year has the potential for a large swing back toward the Democratic party. Do they have the right candidates? Will they have the funds needed to run a viable campaign? Only time will really tell.

Mayor Proposal Deadline Stands

Okay, so this is a bit of slightly old news. However, I wanted to post some quick analysis. It would seem that both Supervisor of Election Buddy Johnson and a local circuit court judge have determined that Johnson's deadline of July 10th is valid. I would have to agree with the reasoning. Consider that the charter amendment needs to be certified 90-days before the election. This is the deadline that Mary Ann Stiles and the Taking Back Hillsborough County group thought would be the time for submitting signatures. However, Johnson can and did add 30 day to that deadline. This period is necessary because his staff needs to certify the signatures as being valid, Hillsborough County voters. When you consider that early voting for the September 5th primary starts in August, the 90-day deadline would be right up against the training and preparation for that voting. The Elections office does not have the staff to both prepare for an election and certify thousands of signatures; thus, Johnson determined he needed the 30-day deadline. Ultimately, though, it does not appear that Taking Back really has anything to worry about. They submitted 10,000 more signatures than required. The Elections office is certifying names at the rate of 95% -- which means Taking Back has enough total signatures. The only issue could be that signatures are required to be taken from across the county in a specific proporition. But they should meet that requirement as well. All of this means that we will get to vote on a measure that seems to have been rushed. I have posted before why I think the current version of this concept needs to be redone. It's not that I think imposing an elected chief executive is a bad idea, but this amendment has some significant flaws. Taking Back should take it back to the drawing board and come back in 2008 with a more developed proposal.

State of Sunshine Gets Pub on Sticks of Fire

Okay, I now feel like I have arrived. Yes, some good bloggers have previously welcomed me to the blogosphere (here, here, here, and here)... but today Tommy at Sticks of Fire has posted some kudos about the State of Sunshine.

Jim says he started his site to share his thoughts on public policy. And he does a great job making intelligent points without getting all preachy. Jim’s writing is excellent and well-thought out. But what I like about the State of Sunshine is that it offers a point of view from right here in your neighborhood ... Jim hasn’t been doing this long, yet he’s already catching the eye of plenty of other players. I suspect The State of Sunshine will quickly become a frequent point of reference discussing possible changes to local public policy.

Sticks of Fire is probably the best Tampa Bay blog, and one of the oldest. To be sure, while I will generally stick to the political realm, Sticks of Fire tackles all kinds of subjects. They also have some cool "Today in Tampa Bay History" posts that the Tampa Bay History Center provides. For those who don't already read Sticks, be sure to add the site to your favorites and add their feed to your feed reader.

Harris Losing More Staff, Will She Quit ?

The St. Pete Times' Buzz and the Tampa Trib's Political Safari are both reporting on new problems for Katherine Harris campaign. The Hotline has a story as well, speculating that it's because how difficult Harris is to work with. This is her second team of campaign staff, and Harris will also be undergoing surgery to remove an ovarian mass. The Buzz analyzed this:

The latest news, combined with Harris' recent medical problems, fueled speculation once again that she would drop out of the race.

This leaves me with some questions. Clearly the race then becomes Will McBride's to lose - mostly because of his personal wealth and family connections. But can he put enough cash into the race to convince voters that he is not "Bill" McBride? Can Peter Monroe or Leroy Collins capitalize on being the anti-McBride? What is Allen Bense thinking now? How will this affect GOP primary turnout? Can Bill Nelson get 75% of the vote against the GOP Nominee? Will having McBride or Monroe on the top of the ticket be a big drag on all Republican candidates? Curiouser and curiouser!

Are Republicans in Congress Killing Florida GOP Members?

It would seem that Florida GOP Congressional Candidates could be sacrificial lambs. First, the House of Representatives passed it's oil drilling plan. Their plan does have a protection for the Navy and Air Force training area in the eastern gulf... but the Democrats can spin it against all Republicans, even those like Shaw that voted against it. Now comes word that Senator Mel Martinez has helped broker a compromise in the Senate to keep drilling 125 miles off the coast of Florida. Majority Leader Frist thinks he has the 60 votes to force a vote on the bill. The plans are vastly different, but the target was Lease Area 181 - that could contain a billion barrels of oil and trillions of cubic feet of natural gas. Energy companies have been drooling over this area for years. The only question is going to be what the conference committee report will be... if House and Senate leaders can agree. Why are we in this position? Because Florida leaders couldn't get together. It would appear that Florida could have had a much better deal, if only they understood what would happen. This will be a big issue in the election, and while it will have a profound impact on the close races, it will make most races closer than they should be. Congressmen Shaw and Mica, and Republican candidates in District 9 and 13 should be wary.

Will the Housing Bubble Burst Kill our Economy

Okay, let me be the first to say that I am neither a financial expert nor an economist. But there is a trend coming that could be a harbinger of things to come. 1) Rising interest rates. Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke, and the Federal Reserve Board's Open Market Committee have been slowly raising interest rates to fight inflation. It appears that there will be at least one more rate hike - maybe - but as goes the Fed so goes mortgage rates. 2) Value Appreciation. In recent years, property values and housing prices have seen a dramatic increase -- and some people made a lot of money. Investors and speculators bought up properties and flipped them at a substantial profit. Low interest rates made it easier for a lot of people to buy property. This drove the demand through the roof, without a similar increase in supply. Adam Smith's invisible hand caused the unprecedented upsurge. The problem is that as property values appreciated, so did property taxes. To be sure, many local governments reduced their millage rate, but that doesn't help the individual taxpayer. 3) Interest-only Mortgages. The percentage of new homes bought with interest-only mortgages grew substantially. This is a great way to make a lot of money, if you sell the property for a profit before the principal started to come due. Given that the interest-only period for a lot of these mortgages will start soon, and at a higher interest rate too. Can you say "foreclosure"? 4) Insurance Crisis. This is something I've written about before - but it deserves mention here. Every homeowner is seeing significant increases in their property insurance. 5) Buyer's Market. As interest rates started rising, the demand lessened. This means people are having a harder time selling their property. Let's put this all together now. Consider two types of people. For home owners: Mortgage payments are going up for those who didn't get a low-interest, fixed-rate mortgage... for some they are going way up. Property values mean higher taxes on newly-purchased homes. Insruance crisis means higher property insurance premiums. That means more money out of their pocket. For potential home buyers: Houses are available, but insurance policies may not be. Most insurance companies are not writing new policies. Because of the Save Our Homes amendment, the value of most homes appraised by the property appraisers office are way below market value; that will be corrected in a big way for the new owner. If the new owner can find insurance, their mortgages will be more expensive. The economic recovery since 2001 has been driven by two things: consumer spending and the housing market. Both of these sectors are taking a hard hit. What does this mean for our economy?

Tampa Bay is Ground Zero for 2006 Elections

This is something I have been saying for some time, but I thought some quick analysis would be in order. With so many candidates from the Bay area, plus the open seats at the state and federal level, Tampa Bay will be the true battleground in August and October. (For the purposes of this post, the Tampa Bay area includes Hernando, Pasco, Pinellas, Hillsborough, Polk, Manatee, and Sarasota Counties). Our televisions will be covered with political ads. Our mailboxes will be full of mailers. Our billboards will have pictures of smiling politicians. Tampa Bay voters will see a virtual hurricane sweep through... and it will have a profound effect on the outcome of elections at all levels of government. Consider what we have here: Three of the five candidates for U.S. Senate: Harris, Collins, and Monroe. Three open U.S. Congressional seats. District 9 has the son of the outgoing incumbent (Bilirakis) facing a former Hillsborough County Commissioner (Busansky), and this is one of the DCCC's "Red to Blue" races. District 11 has two prominent Democrat elected officials (Castor & Miller and two more that ran unsuccessfully for State Representative in 2002 (Farrell & Steinberg) along with a virtual unknown Democrat (Fox) and black Republican (Adams). District 13 has five prominent Republicans (State Representatives Clarke & Detert, former Republican Party Chairs Flanagan & Hudson, and businessman Buchanan) and two Democrats who have run for this office before (Jennings & Schneider). The DCCC also added this to their list of "Red to Blue" seats. Two of the four major candidates for Governor: Crist & Davis. Two of the three candidates for CFO: Lee & Sink. No candidate for Attorney General. Two open Florida Senate seats. District 10 has a former State Representative (Murman), a County Commissioner (Storms), and a prominent businessman and Republican activist (Young). They will face a Navy veteran Democrat nominee (Gorham). This is also the district for one of the candidates for CFO (Lee). District 16 has two Republican State Representatives fighting it out (Berfield & Farkas) to face a Democrat State Representative (Justice). This is also the former senate district of a candidate for Governor (Crist) and much of it is within the former congressional district (now open, see above) of another candidate for governor (Davis) Twelve open Florida House seats, five in Pinellas County alone. Two Hillsborough County Commissioners facing each other (Scott & Sharpe), and with a charter amendment for County Mayor. With all of this... it will be a wonder if Tampa Bay area voters don't go out of their mind.

Mayor Proposal Moving Along

Tomorrow is the deadline set by Hillsborough Supverisor of Election Buddy Johnson for Taking Back Hillsborough County to turn in enough signatures to get their measure for an elected County Mayor on this fall's ballot. Johnson sought clarification from Attorney General Charlie Crist's office on the applicability of the state's deadline for initiative petitions. The state law set the deadline for amendments to the Constitution as February first. The Attorney General's office declined to comment, because it pertains to a change to the county charter - and thus not within the AG's purview. With that decision, Johnson announced that the county charter allows him to follow a different state law that requires signatures to be approved 90 days before the general election. There is some dispute here, as Taking Back leader Mary Ann Stiles believes they have until August to submit the 37,000+ signatures; they have already turned in 30,000. At this point, depite the difference of opinion on the deadline, it appears that this issue will be on the ballot come November. All I can do is point to my earlier post on this issue, and suggest that the voters reject this proposal. Perhaps Taking Back can come back again in 2008 with a properly drafted amendment. (See also the St. Pete Times article on this issue.)

Another Post on Traffic Issues

Yes, I am beginning to sound like I am obsessed with traffic. In reality, I'm not that obsessed. My 'issue' is that I can understand how our leaders can be so short-sighted on this matter. This spring, the Florida legislature passed a bill that would have allowed local governments to ask the voters for permission to add a $2 per day surcharge for rental cars. Governor Jeb Bush vetoed the bill, saying, in part, that because tourists are the ones who predominently rent cars, the surcharge is essentially "taxation without representation." Ha! Thank you, Grover Norquist. Others have pointed out that tourists pay sales and use taxes, hotel bed taxes, gasoline taxes, and many more fees and taxes -- including an existing $2 surcharge on rental cars. All of these were passed without their consent, because they are not electors here in Florida. I hate it when I agree with a St. Petersburg Times editorial, but they have a valid point.

Anyone who thinks Florida couldn't use more money for transportation must have use of their own airplane and a driver (like, say, the governor). This state remains billions of dollars short, even with last year's significant investment. Millions of tourists contribute to the congestion, and there's no reason why they shouldn't pay a bit more to help ease a situation they help create.

Well aware of the governor's aversion to justifiable tax increases, the bill's supporters made the rental car surcharge a county-by-county decision and required voters to approve it. The surcharge could have raised more than $32-million a year in Orange County, $12-million in Hillsborough County and $3-million in Pinellas. It was promoted by Republicans from traffic-choked Central Florida, hardly a bastion of tax-and-spend liberals, and received broad bipartisan support.

Apparently, the Broward County Commission has the cojones to do something - despite a historic proclivity for the voters there to reject a tax increase.

New passenger rail service. Downtown streetcars. Express shuttles to Miami and Boca Raton. Shorter waits for buses. Synchronized streetlights. Broward County voters will be asked in November if they want to raise the sales tax by a penny to expand mass transit and ease traffic congestion over the next 25 years. County commissioners had been reluctant for months to approve the referendum, but did so Tuesday amid heavy lobbying by a coalition of business and union leaders. Their close 5-4 vote could foretell a tough campaign with proponents facing charges that not enough work has gone into the plans and that hiking the sales tax from 6 cents to 7 cents is too much. Voters have twice rejected a sales tax increase in Broward over the past 25 years.

The Greater Tampa Chamber of Commerce tried to get the Hillsborough County Commission to do the same thing a few years ago, to no avail. It would seem that our leaders are scared to ask the voters for permission to raise taxes for roads - out of fear they would not be re-elected or elected to higher office. Finally, I would like to add my thoughts to those of Tampa Rail, In Theory, and Sticks of Fire blogs on a recent story from Bay News 9. Russ Handler asked the question: Would a mass transit rail system benefit the Bay area? I am among the many who say: Yes! Yes! Yes! I have been a tourist in many cities with great transit systems- from the T in Boston to the New York subways to Washington's Metro - and have loved the abiliy to get around without a car. I know I would use it here in Tampa, especially to go see USF Bulls football games! Of course, I say this despite the fact that Atlanta area counties have a sales tax for MARTA and will still have a 23-lane-wide interstate running through their community. Oh well, maybe we can get some new leaders on the County Commission. (Or from this story - maybe not.)

Will the Insurance "Crisis" Kill the Republican Party

In the past couple of weeks there have been quite a few stories about homeowners insurance. They were disturbing enough individually, but taken together they spell trouble:

Tampa Tribune: Citizens' Not Happy To Be No. 1 TAMPA - It's just 3 1/2 years old and was supposed to stay modest in size. On Saturday, however, Citizen's Property Insurance Corp., the state-sponsored insurer of last resort, will surpass State Farm to become Florida's largest insurer. More than 1.2 million policyholders will be covered by Citizens on July 1, almost twice as many as were covered when Citizens first started writing policies in 2003.

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Ft. Myers News-Press We may pay for Katrina damage La., Miss. losses could jack Fla. flood insurance Hurricane Katrina’s effect on the nation’s flood insurance program won’t be felt in Mississippi and Louisiana, where the storm did the most damage. The impact will be in Florida, where the lion’s share of the National Flood Insurance Program’s policies are in force. More than 2 million home and business owners in the Sunshine State could pay higher flood insurance premiums and have subsidies for older homes, businesses and vacation properties eliminated if Congress enacts many of the proposals being floated to fix the financially shaky flood program.

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St. Petersburg Times: Another insurer asks for huge hike Nationwide, which already has stopped writing new policies in Florida, wants to raise its rates 71.4 percent in anticipation of hurricanes. Nationwide Insurance Co.'s Florida unit is asking state regulators today for an average 71.4-percent rate hike for homeowners coverage, joining a flood of insurers seeking double-digit increases in the face of an expected busy hurricane season. The request, if approved by the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation, would be effective Nov. 10. Public hearings, which are required on all rate hikes of more than 15 percent, will be scheduled. The rate increase would affect all of Nationwide's 240,000 Florida policyholders and comes on the heels of a 21 percent average rate hike last July. Last August, Nationwide said it wouldn't renew 25,000 homeowners policies and 4,800 mobile home policies. It has stopped writing new policies in Florida.

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Ft. Myers News-Press State Farm: 79% rate jump won't do Insurer will seek more as Nationwide seeks 71 percent increase TALLAHASSEE — The Florida arm of State Farm has withdrawn a request for a 79 percent rate hike in homeowners' insurance rates — telling regulators that won't be high enough. That announcement came Thursday as Nationwide Insurance filed for a statewide average 71 percent increase in home insurance rates. State Farm's announcement said the company's costs have risen significantly since the original request was made in May.

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Lakeland Ledger: Insurance Is 'A Mess' for Officials, Too LAKELAND -- Homeowners aren't the only ones afraid to open the mail these days. Property insurance premiums have more than doubled for the Polk County School Board and local governments are seeing similar jumps. "It's a mess," said Mike Kushner, risk management director for Polk County. Kushner, who is a candidate for a statewide insurance task force, says Florida's insurance crisis has gotten so bad that he is getting calls from private businesses asking for advice.

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Sarasota Herald-Tribune: Insurance rate hikes force more to go 'bare' Like many Florida homeowners, Bernard Davis expected his property insurance rate would jump after the past two hurricane seasons. But the 77-year-old, disabled Korean War veteran was wholly unprepared when St. Petersburg-based United Property and Casualty Insurance Co. refused to renew the $887-a-year policy on his simple Brooksdale Drive home in Sarasota. "I expected them to raise the rates, but did not expect them to cancel the policy," said Davis, who lives miles from the water and has never filed a claim with United. When his coverage expires in August, Davis is reluctantly considering joining a growing number of Florida residents who are going "bare" -- without insurance. Some pinched commercial landlords -- seeing big increases in their deductible percentages -- are likewise doing without. They might represent the extreme, but as Florida's property insurance crisis hits new lows, homeowners and business people are considering -- and sometimes being forced into -- alternatives that they would have considered unthinkable just a few months ago. Some business people are considering forming their own cooperative insurance companies or looking to shift their holdings out of state. Many are facing the prospect of passing along at least a portion of their new insurance burden to customers. Even governments have not been immune.

The state of Florida is the largest insurance company in the state... Floridians' flood insurance could go up because of Katrina... Natiowide needs 71% increase... State Farm's 79% increase is not enough... Governments are having problems with insurance too... People and businesses going without insurance, during an active hurricane season... And that is just about one week's worth of news. With all of this news coming at the beginning of hurricane season - what did the Republican legislature do this Spring to help? They bailed out Citizen's - which was in debt from 2004 and 2005 payouts. The bailout came in the form of tax dollars from the budget surplus, as well as an assessment on everyone's home owner's insurance (basically a TAX on your insurance policy). The Republican's solution to raising rates? Raising rates even more. Representative Rubio and Senator Pruitt, along with all Republican candidates for governor and the cabinet, need to wake up and realize that this issue could be enough to give Democrats the push they need to have a big win this fall.

"We must hang together, for we will surely hang seperately" - B. Franklin

Two hundred thirty years ago, 54 white men signed their names to one of the most important resolutions in the history of mankind. By doing so, they were committing among the highest of crimes, treason against the king. Many of us know the beginning of the document, but how many realize the important weight the words carry?

When in the Course of human events it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation. We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.

That is among the phrase most people could recite when asked about the Declaration. But this statement is not alone. Indeed, the paragraph continues on:

— That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, — That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness.

Those two statements carry the power behind the sentiment. "Consent of the governed"... "the Right of the People to alter or abolish ... and to institute new Government..." The princpals of democracy have been laid out in plain terms. The people can create and recreate their government as they see fit.

Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security. — Such has been the patient sufferance of these Colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former Systems of Government. The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States. To prove this, let Facts be submitted to a candid world.

The measured tone that continues this paragraph shows their contemporaries and posterity that such action declaring independence is not capricious or impulsive. To the contrary, the members of the Continental Congress believe the colonists had been more than patient with the efforts of the King. They go on to list their proof of British tryanny.

He has refused his Assent to Laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good. He has forbidden his Governors to pass Laws of immediate and pressing importance, unless suspended in their operation till his Assent should be obtained; and when so suspended, he has utterly neglected to attend to them. He has refused to pass other Laws for the accommodation of large districts of people, unless those people would relinquish the right of Representation in the Legislature, a right inestimable to them and formidable to tyrants only. He has called together legislative bodies at places unusual, uncomfortable, and distant from the depository of their Public Records, for the sole purpose of fatiguing them into compliance with his measures. He has dissolved Representative Houses repeatedly, for opposing with manly firmness his invasions on the rights of the people. He has refused for a long time, after such dissolutions, to cause others to be elected, whereby the Legislative Powers, incapable of Annihilation, have returned to the People at large for their exercise; the State remaining in the mean time exposed to all the dangers of invasion from without, and convulsions within. He has endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; for that purpose obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migrations hither, and raising the conditions of new Appropriations of Lands. He has obstructed the Administration of Justice by refusing his Assent to Laws for establishing Judiciary Powers. He has made Judges dependent on his Will alone for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries. He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harass our people and eat out their substance. He has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing Armies without the Consent of our legislatures. He has affected to render the Military independent of and superior to the Civil Power. He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws; giving his Assent to their Acts of pretended Legislation: For quartering large bodies of armed troops among us: For protecting them, by a mock Trial from punishment for any Murders which they should commit on the Inhabitants of these States: For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world: For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent: For depriving us in many cases, of the benefit of Trial by Jury: For transporting us beyond Seas to be tried for pretended offences: For abolishing the free System of English Laws in a neighbouring Province, establishing therein an Arbitrary government, and enlarging its Boundaries so as to render it at once an example and fit instrument for introducing the same absolute rule into these Colonies For taking away our Charters, abolishing our most valuable Laws and altering fundamentally the Forms of our Governments: For suspending our own Legislatures, and declaring themselves invested with power to legislate for us in all cases whatsoever. He has abdicated Government here, by declaring us out of his Protection and waging War against us. He has plundered our seas, ravaged our coasts, burnt our towns, and destroyed the lives of our people. He is at this time transporting large Armies of foreign Mercenaries to compleat the works of death, desolation, and tyranny, already begun with circumstances of Cruelty & Perfidy scarcely paralleled in the most barbarous ages, and totally unworthy the Head of a civilized nation. He has constrained our fellow Citizens taken Captive on the high Seas to bear Arms against their Country, to become the executioners of their friends and Brethren, or to fall themselves by their Hands. He has excited domestic insurrections amongst us, and has endeavoured to bring on the inhabitants of our frontiers, the merciless Indian Savages whose known rule of warfare, is an undistinguished destruction of all ages, sexes and conditions. In every stage of these Oppressions We have Petitioned for Redress in the most humble terms: Our repeated Petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A Prince, whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people. Nor have We been wanting in attentions to our British brethren. We have warned them from time to time of attempts by their legislature to extend an unwarrantable jurisdiction over us. We have reminded them of the circumstances of our emigration and settlement here. We have appealed to their native justice and magnanimity, and we have conjured them by the ties of our common kindred. to disavow these usurpations, which would inevitably interrupt our connections and correspondence. They too have been deaf to the voice of justice and of consanguinity. We must, therefore, acquiesce in the necessity, which denounces our Separation, and hold them, as we hold the rest of mankind, Enemies in War, in Peace Friends. We, therefore, the Representatives of the United States of America, in General Congress, Assembled, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, do, in the Name, and by Authority of the good People of these Colonies, solemnly publish and declare, That these United Colonies are, and of Right ought to be Free and Independent States, that they are Absolved from all Allegiance to the British Crown, and that all political connection between them and the State of Great Britain, is and ought to be totally dissolved; and that as Free and Independent States, they have full Power to levy War, conclude Peace contract Alliances, establish Commerce, and to do all other Acts and Things which Independent States may of right do. — And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of Divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes and our sacred Honor.

The Declaration of Indepence is a document that proves the pen is truly mighter than the sword. Have a Happy Independence Day. God Bless you and God Bless America!