The Planning Commission, Rapid Transit, and Light Rail

With a hat tip to Tampa Rail, according to today's Tampa Tribune, there seems to be a more formal effort to include light rail in the long range plans for our community. It doesn't yet mean the system will be built, but at least it is finally being factored into the process.

Planners in Tampa and Hillsborough County are starting what could be a years-long push to create a multimillion dollar rail system or some other mass transit network. The Hillsborough County City-County Planning Commission has scheduled a meeting today to outline past rail proposals and to urge local governments to support the inclusion of a rail network into long-range comprehensive plans. Comprehensive plans are blueprints for future growth and are mandated for local governments by the state. The last time Hillsborough County's plan was updated was in the late 1990s. The county is in the process of updating that plan now for presentation to elected officials next spring. That plan will not include a rail network but could reference some future system.

It's about time! The Commission will be meeting tonight to consider rail. In fact, that is how it is described on their agenda: "Consideration of Rail." The meeting will be at 5:30pm in the Planning Commission Meeting Room on the 18th floor of County Center in downtown Tampa. The Trib also points out that the Metropolitan Planning Organization will be having a series of meetings around the community, starting next week and running through mid-December, to invite the public to discuss transportation issues. It will be interesting to see how these meetings turn out. Who knows... I might actually be able to ride a train in Tampa during my lifetime!!

A Look Inside Taxi Regulations

Tim Fasano, cab driver and blogger of Tampa Taxi Shots fame, often talks about taxi-business issues on his blog. Because of this, he has become an unofficial leader of the cab community. If you have time, add his blog to your reading list. He pointed out today that he was quoted in the St. Petersburg Times article about a controversy brewing in Hillsborough County. Taxis in Hillsborough are not regulated by the county or city government, but by a "special district" called the Public Transportation Commission. The PTC was created by a special act of the Florida Legislature to ensure a viable taxi industry. Tim gave a great post earlier this month talking about how the system works. There needs to be a balance on the number of taxis to make sure that each taxi company, and their drivers, is able to both provide adequate service while making enough money to survive. However, the current controversy is about the actions of the PTC Director, Greg Cox, and the applications submitted by a new company for new permits to serve the growing community. Some are alleging that Cox prefers the new company to local companies who already operate here. The article, and Tim's posts, are interesting reads.

Florida Primary to Move?

The Florida Legislature meets tomorrow to elect its new leaders: Senate President Ken Pruitt and House Speaker Marco Rubio. Both are good men and will be excellent leaders. This post, however, is about an idea broached by Speaker Rubio: moving Florida's primary from March to early February. Today's Orlando Sentinel has a good article on this proposal.

Incoming state House Speaker Marco Rubio, R-Miami, this week is expected to unveil a plan to move Florida's March presidential primary closer to the first-in-the-nation New Hampshire primary. Rubio and others have decried Florida's later primary date, saying it excludes the mega-state from playing a significant role in choosing the Democratic and Republican nominees. "Florida voters deserve a greater role in choosing our nation's leaders," Rubio said. Florida's last presidential primary occurred in March 2004, six weeks after New Hampshire's. It also came after 28 states and the District of Columbia held caucuses or primaries and the nominations of President Bush and Democrat John Kerry were virtually certain.

This is not a good idea... it is a GREAT idea. Florida's primary was part of the original "Super Tuesday" primaries in 1988. The idea came from southern Democrats hoping to nominate a moderate candidate -- instead of a northern liberal. (The irony was that Dukakis eventually won the nomination anyway.) In 2004, however, many states moved their primaries earlier -- creating a "mini-Tuesday". It worked against Florida, because the Democatic nomination was all but sewn up for Kerry by the time the primary was conducted. I hope the Legislature and Governor Crist will pass this legislation in the upcoming Legislative Session. Florida will be in the national spotlight for a good reason this time. The State of Sunshine will monitor this issue. Cross Posted at Oh Eight Watch.

Applicants for City of Tampa Vacancies

Sorry if we're a little late on this, as Sticks of Fire and Seminole Heights have both posted about today's news. Fifty-two people have applied for the City Council vacancies created when Kevin White and Rose Ferlita ran for county commission. However there are some candidates for both seats we at State of Sunshine find interesting. For Rose Ferlita's city-wide district:

Joseph Citro, in addition to being hair stylist and member of the city’s code enforcement and civil service boards, he is a candidate for Kevin White's seat in the March 2007 elections. Jill Collins, who is a former chair of the Barrio Latino Commission, vice chair of the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council, and who lost a bid for State Representative against Kevin Ambler in 2002. Neil Cosentino, a retired Air Force major and perennial candidate for office. Bob Henriquez, former state representative, football coach at Tampa Catholic, and candidate for Mary Alvarez' West Tampa District 6 seat.

For Kevin White's East Tampa seat:

Warren Hope Dawson, former assistant city attorney who lost a bid for State Representative to Betty White. Frank Reddick, executive board member of the East Tampa Partnership and Joseph Robinson, professional engineer -- both are the current candidates for District 5 in the March 2007 election.

The City Council has said they want to select people who will not run for re-election in the March elections, which would seemingly disqualify Citro, Henriquez, Reddick, and Robinson. The selection will be made at the November 30th City Council meeting.

"Robo Calls"

The blogosphere is a-titter with posts about automated phone calls. It appears that someone - allegedly the NRCC - was harassing voters with automated calls that re-dialed if the listener didn't hang on the phone long enough. There are other allegations that someone - again allegedly the Republicans - were using fake "robo calls" in such a way as to make the receivers think the Democrats were making them. Regardless, Paul Kiel at TPMmucraker has noted that some states are starting to take action on these calls. Today, the Missouri Attorney General announced that he's urging the state legislature to pass a law that would protect voters on the state's "No Call" list from automated political calls. In that, the state is emulating New Hampshire, where voters on the federal "Do Not Call" registry are protected for robo calls. ... This year's election no doubt left many citizens envious of states like Indiana (where automated calls are completely banned) and New Hampshire, where voters were spared a glut of calls. So it'll be interesting to see how many take action. Earlier this year, State Senator Jim King (R-Jacksonville) was embroiled in a bitter primary fight against conservative activist Randall Terry. In that election, Terry's campaign made automated calls attacking King. The problem here isn't what was in the calls, but the harassment people feel when they receive them. Thus, King and State Representative Stan Jordan (R-Jacksonville) will be filing legislation for the next legislative session to ban automated telephone calls, regardless of the state in which they originate. The Florida Times-Union has an article from September that talks more about this.

Northeast Florida legislators are preparing a state law to ban automated political calls as part of Florida's Do Not Call program, possibly ending a longtime campaign tactic that has fallen into public disfavor. The legislation being prepared by Rep. Stan Jordan, R-Jacksonville, and Sen. Jim King, R-Jacksonville, would include "robo-calls" with the other solicitation calls banned under Florida's Do Not Call list. Political calls had been exempt from the state's Do Not Call program. "It's a nuisance that's reached an epidemic level," Jordan said. "I got the calls myself. You're bombarded with them, and the worst part about it is they're automated so you can't even talk to them to get off the list. You don't pay for a phone to be abused like that. Homeowners and constituents have a right to privacy." Jordan's bill, which is still being drafted for filing in November, would target only automated political calls regardless of their out-of-state origin. Personal political calls would still be allowed; Jordan said those are less of a nuisance because a homeowner could presumably speak to the caller and request privacy.

This is good legislation. Let's hope it passes. The State of Sunshine will monitor this through the session.

Minimum Wages - Florida and Federal

One of the major policy initiatives of soon-to-be-Speaker Nancy Pelosi is raising the minimum wage from $5.15 to $7.25 per hour. This would set the federal wage law temporarily higher than Florida's current minimum wage, $6.67 per hour for 2006. In 2004, Florida's voters overwhelmingly approved an amendment to the state constitution establishing the minimum wage at $6.15 per hour. The amendment requires the state to adjust the wage to reflect the rate of inflation of urban wages. For 2005 the rate increased to $6.40 per hour, then to $6.67 per hour; that is an average of 4.1% increase each year. If the rate holds the same, the Florida wage will pass the proposed federal wage in 2009.

Year	Est. Wage
2006	$ 6.67
2007	$ 6.95
2008	$ 7.24
2009	$ 7.54
2010	$ 7.85
2011	$ 8.17

Note: Florida's constitution does not require the state wage to be increased when the federal wage is. Employers will pay either the state or federal wage, whichever is higher. Stateline reports that the federal increase is probably a forgone conclusion:

Traditionally, Democrats have backed minimum wage increases as a way to help poor families climb out of poverty, while Republicans have opposed them because they say government-mandated pay hikes hurt the local economy and jeopardize jobs. But recent national polls show that a majority of Americans, across both political parties, favor raising workers' pay.

As a result, federal and state politicians are eager to show their support for raising the minimum. In the past two years, more states raised their minimum wage rates than in the 68-year history of the federal minimum wage law.

Last summer, Congress considered a federal wage increase from its current level of $5.15 to $7.25, but the bill foundered because Republicans in the House tied the wage hike to an estate tax reduction that killed the bill’s chances in the upper chamber. Political analysts predict President Bush, who has opposed wage hikes in the past, will come to an agreement with Congress on a wage increase next year, provided small businesses are protected.

Whatever happens, we don't see much of an impact on Florida's business climate or economy.

Still Calling for Jeb to Run...

Vince Williams at OpEdNews.com still believes Florida Governor Jeb Bush will run for President.

Ok, Jeb proclaimed he wasn't going to run for President in 2008. So, let's get this one out of the way right up front: since when does a Party's "darling" who plays hard to get, eschew changing his mind, if DRAFTED to run.

He goes on to provide a short biography of the outgoing Governor, and concludes his comments with:

As stated above, Bush denied interest in running for president. But that was way back in November of 2004. It is "instructive" that there is a website selling "Jeb 2008" presidential bumper stickers and pins which opened up in 2005, and in May of this year, George W. DID make the following statement: "Jeb would make a great president." And so, you can do your own prognostication. But, mine is "BARRING a major stumble, look for Jeb Bush to become the Republican candidate for president in 2008".

Cross Posted at Oh Eight Watch

The Blogosphere is Quiet on RNC Chair Mel (UPDATED)

Well, almost quiet. Yesterday, we posted our thoughts about the selection of Mel Martinez as Chairman of the Republican National Committee. We are concerned that it may not have been the best selection. Apparently, so do a lot of other conservative bloggers. Michelle Malkin wonders if "the GOP has learned anything" from the elections. Mary Katherine Ham is "thoroughly demoralized" with the selection -- "Not only is this guy not a terribly distinguished Senator, but his pick is a transparent little identity politics stunt." Thomas, a RedState blogger, has taken to calling our Senator "Bonehead" Martinez. At Blogs of War and at the Alabama Liberation Front there are good summaries of conservative bloggers reactions. PEER Review Florida thinks that Jeb Bush would be a better chairman. However, on the liberal blogs - at least those that are discussing the move - they seem to like the idea of Mel Martinez as RNC Chairman. DailyKos notes the split, where Martinez serves as front-man while Mike Duncan will run the day-to-day operations, puts the Republicans at a severe disadvantage. (He also calls some Republicans xenophobic ethnocentrists, meaning his selection could hurt some of the more "white bread" Republican base.) Mustang Bobby at Bark Bark Woof Woof has some concern, as a Florida liberal, with the selection -- but comes around when he sees that conservatives have problems. So, when conservatives don't like something and liberals do, can anyone tell us why this is a good thing?? UPDATE: Here are some additional comments on Mel Martinez': The Campaign Manager doubts Martinez' effectiveness. The Tallahassee Sentinel (a new conservative blog) is not impressed with this start to the GOP reorganization. PEER Review Florida has posted again, telling conservatives not to worry about Mel's conservative credentials. The Carpetbagger Report is also critical of the selection of Martinez.

Mel Martinez - RNC Chairman

The Associated Press and other news sources are reporting that Florida Senator Mel Martinez will take over as the Republican National Chairman from Ken Mehlman in January. Martinez will remain a Senator, and serve as a public figurehead.

Florida Sen. Mel Martinez, a prominent Hispanic who previously served in President Bush's Cabinet, will assume the high-profile post of Republican National Committee general chairman, GOP officials said Monday. Martinez, 60, will remain in the Senate when he takes the reins of the RNC in January, said the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to avoid pre-empting a formal announcement. The first-term senator will be the face of the party, focusing on fundraising, outreach and travel to promote the GOP agenda. At the same time, Mike Duncan, the RNC's current general counsel and a former party treasurer, will be named chairman and will be put in charge of running the everyday operations at the party's Capitol Hill headquarters, the officials said.

We are not sure that this is the best move for the Republican National Committee. There will be obvious punditry about how this could help draw more Hispanics to the party. Hispanics will be a major voting bloc in Texas, Florida, New Mexico, and California - so any in-roads the GOP can make into that ethnic group will be helpful. Don't get us wrong. Mel has a GREAT story -- the reason we supported him for Senate in 2004, even during the primary. He has done a solid job as Senator, providing a real and rational solution to the immigration debate. He went all out on off-shore drilling to protect Florida's beaches. He deserves our support as a Senator. However, the Republican party is facing a problem. It appears that a schism is developing between the libertarian conservatives and the social conservatives. More moderate Republicans lost a lot races in a lot of states because social conservatives demand a larger share of the Republican base. See also: Chafee, Lincoln. Moreover, Republicans lost ground in places without a lot of Hispanic voters (by percentages of course). Pennsylvania. Ohio. Indiana. New Hampshire. Sure, we could use more Hispanic votes in these states, but there just aren't enough in these states to win enough votes to carry them in 2008. Finally, Republicans lost because too many were too close to President George Bush for comfort. Charlie Crist was so concerned about being linked to the President he purposefully stayed away from an appearance in Pensacola the day before the election, and then garnered a lot of press for the 'slight.' Jim Tallent appeared with President Bush -- and lost his re-election bid. Okay, so we take a former Bush cabinet Secretary who won election to the Senate with the support of President Bush from a state the President easily carried in 2004 and the Republican governor carried in 2006 and who ran as a social conservative -- then we make him RNC Chairman. Yeah, that makes sense.

2006 Weblog Awards

Okay, I am taking a moment to post on something other than politics... Okay, it's shameless self-promotion... The 2006 Weblog Awards are not accepting nominations. They aren't as impressive as Creative Loafing's Best of the Bay awards, but nominations couldn't hurt. Here are the awards that may be appropriate for The State of Sunshine... or any other blog you might like.

• Best Blog
• Best New Blog
• Best Centrist Blog

Thank you for your support -- we now return you to regularly scheduled posting.

The Implications of Amendment 3

Today's Orlando Sentinel talks about the implications of Amendment 3, which requires a 60% vote to pass future amendments to Florida's constitution. Of the six amendments on the ballot, Amendment 3 passed with the smallest margin 57.8% to 42.2%. Only one other amendment, Amendment 1, failed to get the 60% vote this year. But what will happen in 2008? Let's consider the list of amendments that the Post considers the most likely to make the ballot. Florida Marriage Protection Amendment This could be an interesting twist on irony. Amendment 3 was pushed by a number of conservative business groups, led by the Florida Chamber of Commerce. However, in a state as divided Florida, the chances of a ban on gay marriage receiving 60%. To be sure, some states such as Tennessee and South Carolina saw amendments pass with 80% of the vote, while others such as Virginia and Wisconsin saw less than 60% approve. In fact, Arizona outright rejected their ban this year. Florida4Marriage will need to work very hard to get 60% of the voters to approve a ballot in a presidential election year. Funding of Embryonic Stem Cell Research Most Americans had not heard of Missouri's stem cell research proposition until the Limbaugh-Fox controversy. It started when actor Michael J. Fox appeared in a commercial for Democrat Senate Candidate Claire McCaskill. Fox's support was directly linked to Republican Senator Jim Tallent's opposition to stem cell research. Conservative talk radio guru Rush Limbaugh, while talking about his thoughts on the commercial, also re-enacted Fox's Parkinson's-related twitches for his "Ditto-Cam" subscribers. Some pundits credit the controversy for the 51% - 49% victory for stem cell research. Two years earlier, a stem cell research proposition in California only managed a 59%-41% victory. Chances are slim to none that Floridians for Stem Cell Research and Cures can convince 60% of the voters to pass a stem cell amendment in Florida. Sales Tax Reform Former Florida Senate President John McKay has spearheaded Floridians Against Inequities in Rates (FAIR) to bring stronger reforms to Florida's sales and use tax. He wants the Legislature to review periodically all sales tax exemptions, except those on "food; prescription drugs; health services; and residential rent, electricity and heating fuel." He began his efforts as Senate President, but the Florida House refused to take up his measures. There are three initiatives being pushed: one would establish the Legislative review, one would require all exemptions to have a statement of public purpose, and the last would require the Legislature to review services that are exempt from tax. FAIR will have to re-do their petitions, however, because there are problems with the effective date. (FAIR had hoped to be on 2006 ballot, and so has a 2008 effective date in one or more of the petitions). Whether these amendments could reach the 60% level is unclear at best. Redistricting Reform In the 1980's, the Republican Party had proposed changing the way Florida establishes the districts for the state legislature and Congress, removing the Florida Legislature and creating an independent commission. At the time, Democrats refused to change. In the late 1990's, after Republicans took control of the Legislature, the Democrats proposed the same thing, and Republicans refused. Now there are two initiatives being proposed. The first would establish an independent commission. This proposal had to be re-worked because they would have failed to meet the limitation of a 75-word summary. The second initiative would establish the criteria for redistricting. We believe if this makes the ballot it will receive a majority of the votes, but will it get to 60%? The Committee for Fair Representation will have its work cut out. Voter Approved Land Use Plans The last amendment that could likely be on the 2008 ballot is one that would require voter approval of changes to the comprehensive plan. This would require local governments to put all changes to existing comprehensive land use plans, or the adoption of a new plan, to the voters before they can go into effect. Voters in St. Pete Beach approved changes to their City Charter that require voter approval of land use changes, but the vote was barely a majority. Chances are slim that the Hometown Democracy PAC can get 60% of the vote. It will be interesting to see whether these groups continue pushing their efforts, or if they decide that the 60% bar is just too high. UPDATE: Correction made with thanks to The Florida Masochist.

Next Up: City of Tampa Elections - March 6, 2007

In less than four months, the voters in the City of Tampa will be among the next group to cast ballots. Typically most voters ignore municipal elections -- which is ironic given that the Mayor and City Council have a more direct impact on our daily lives than our Congressional and State representatives. So, the State of Sunshine will keep tabs on these local candidates. The Supervisor of Elections has a list of currently announced candidates: Marion Serious Lewis, a Captain with the Tampa Police Department, and Arthur Richardson, III are the only official candidates for Mayor; however, we fully expect Pam Iorio to run for re-election. Former mayor Dick Greco has also been urged to consider running again. In District 1, a city-wide district, Councilwoman Gwen Miller is running for re-election, facing Old Seminole Heights Neighborhood Association President Randy Baron and South Tampa real estate investor Julie Jenkins. In District 2, a city-wide district, Councilman Shawn Harrison has filed for the seat vacated by County Commissioner-elect Rose Ferlita. The City Council will appoint an interim council member, and they are looking for someone who will only serve out the term. Councilman Harrison currently represents District 7, but has reached his term limit in that district. In District 3, the last city-wide district, Councilwoman Linda Saul-Sena is running for re-election. No opponent has filed as of today. In District 4, a South Tampa district (see map below), Councilman John Dingfelder is running for re-election against two opponents: for City of Tampa assistant attorney Julie Brown and Joseph V. Citro, a special hearing master and member of the Civil Service Board. Dingfelder ran for County Commission as a Democrat in 2002 before being elected to City Council in 2003. In District 5, the East Tampa district vacated by County Commissioner-elect Kevin White, has drawn Frank A. Reddick and Joe Robinson. Robinson ran unsuccessfully as a Republican for Supervisor of Elections in 2000 and without party affiliation for School Board in 2004. Reddick is President of the Northview Hills Civic Association in East Tampa. The City Council will appoint an interim council member, and they are looking for someone who will only serve out the term. In District 6, the West Tampa district held by term-limited Mary Alvarez, former State Representative Bob Bob "Coach" Henriquez has filed to run. Finally, in District 7, the New Tampa district, New Tampa businessman Joseph P. Caetano, New Tampa Community Council President Frank J. Margarella , and activist Terrance Ryerson Lee Neal have filed for the open seat. The State of Sunshine will keep tabs as best we can on these races. As candidates develop websites or we see news reports, we will try to post it here.

Map of City Council Districts (1, 2, & 3 are city-wide)

New Blog Started: Oh Eight Watch

Given the end of the 2006 elections, The State of Sunshine has decided to start a 2nd blog: Oh Eight Watch. It will be a place to follow what the major Republican and Democratic candidates for the 2008 presidential nominations are doing. That way we can keep The State of Sunshine focused on Florida politics and use Oh Eight Watch for what is sure to be the most interesting presidential election in decades -- and it may be the first without someone named Bush on the ballot since 1976.

Interesting Coincidences: Jeb Bush in 2000 & 2006

Sometimes it can be educational to look backwards and review what has transpired, especially when you have two elections so closely linked as Bill Nelson's victories in 2000 and 2006. First, let's get into the Wayback Machine and travel back to 2000:

"For the good of the party," Education Commissioner Tom Gallagher stepped out of the U.S. Senate race and into a spot he knows well: running for State Treasurer and Insurance Commissioner. Appearing with Gov. Jeb Bush and Republican Party Chairman Al Cardenas, Gallagher said Thursday he agreed to seek the state job to save the party from an ugly primary fight that could have left the Republican Senate nominee too battered to win in November. "I'm not saying I didn't want to be a U.S. senator," Gallagher said. "But you have to work with the party if you want to be successful." (St. Petersburg Times -- June 16, 2000)

Tom Gallagher, who had run several times statewide dropped out of the race for a little known Congressman from Orlando who was fresh off the highly unpopular impeachment proceedings. Perhaps allowing Gallagher to compete, or even backing Gallagher would have given the Republicans the Senate seat held by outgoing Senator Connie Mack. Bill Nelson: 51.0%. Bill McCollum: 46.2% . In 2000, McCollum was the worst-performing Republican running statewide. Now, let's pile into the Wayback Machine and come forward to 2006:

[There] is a renewed effort to persuade Allan Bense to enter the race. The panic among Republicans over Harris' pathetic campaign has grown, and there is a growing sense she must be taken out in the primary if she won't get out herself. Let's connect the dots. Gov. Jeb Bush, who refuses to run, says Bense would be "an outstanding candidate'' and has "doubts'' about whether Harris can beat incumbent Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson. ... Prominent Republicans such as former Florida GOP chairman Al Cardenas say Harris should get out.(St. Petersburg Times -- May 5, 2006)

Katherine Harris had won praise and admiration from many among the Republican base because of her high profile during the fallout from the 2000 presidential election. At one point from 2000 to 2002, she was able to raise more money for other candidates than almost any other Republican. Perhaps by backing and helping Katherine Harris, would have given the Republicans the Senate seat once held by former Senator Connie Mack. Bill Nelson 60.3%. Katherine Harris 38.1%. In 2006, Katherine Harris was the worst-performing Republican running statewide. Here is one possible conclusion: Governor Jeb Bush and the Republican Party of Florida got actively involved in both races - in the first to force a one candidate out, in the second to get one candidate in. In both races, the Republicans lost. Now we know that liberals will say that Bill Nelson won these races, and that if the party had stayed out it would not have mattered. We disagree. It is entirely possible that if Bush and the party had stayed out, Nelson would have lost in either 2000 or 2006, and the United States Senate would be no worse than 50-50. Instead the Democrats now have control. In the end, hindsight is 20-20. There really is know way to know what would have happened. But there is at least some question as to if the results of these races is purely coincidental or if there was some cause and effect involved.

Media Calls Viginia for Webb -- Dems Win Senate

The Associated Press has called Virgina for Webb:

Democrat Jim Webb won Virginia's pivotal U.S. Senate race Wednesday, unseating Republican George Allen and giving the Democrats total control of Congress. ... AP contacted election officials in all 134 localities where voting occurred, obtaining updated numbers Wednesday. About half the localities said they had completed their post-election canvassing and nearly all had counted outstanding absentees. Most were expected to be finished by Friday. (Taken from ABC7 - Richmond, VA)

The net gain for Democrats is now +6. That means Democrats now have the majority in the United States Senate, by 51-49.

State	Rep	Dem
MD	Michael Steele	Ben Cardin	HELD
MO	Sen. Jim Tallent (i)	Claire McKaskill	FLIPPED
MT	Sen. Conrad Burns (i)	Jon Tester	FLIPPED
NJ	Tom Kean, Jr	Sen. Bob Menendez (i)	HELD
OH	Sen. Mike DeWine (i)	Sherrod Brown	FLIPPED
PA	Sen. Rick Santorum (i)	Bob Casey	FLIPPED
RI	Sen. Lincoln Chafee (i)	Sheldon Whitehouse	FLIPPED
TN	Bob Corker	Harold Ford	HELD
VA	Sen. George Allen (i)	Jim Webb	FLIPPED

Senate Closer to Democratic Control

Montana has been called for Democrat Jon Tester. The net gain for Democrats is now +5. But the Democratic candidate (Webb) is also winning in the Virginia. If this last state holds true, the Democrats take control of the Senate 51-49.

State	Rep	Dem
MD	Michael Steele	Ben Cardin	HELD
MO	Sen. Jim Tallent (i)	Claire McKaskill	FLIPPED
MT	Sen. Conrad Burns (i)	Jon Tester	FLIPPED
NJ	Tom Kean, Jr	Sen. Bob Menendez (i)	HELD
OH	Sen. Mike DeWine (i)	Sherrod Brown	FLIPPED
PA	Sen. Rick Santorum (i)	Bob Casey	FLIPPED
RI	Sen. Lincoln Chafee (i)	Sheldon Whitehouse	FLIPPED
TN	Bob Corker	Harold Ford	HELD
VA	Sen. George Allen (i)	Jim Webb	T.B.A.

The race for 2008 starts today

Some may argue the race for 2008 started a while back, when you consider the list of Republicans and Democrats that were touring the country helping party members up and down tickets. Clinton. McCain. Obama. Giuliani. Edwards. Romney. The parade of those who would be king, will only get longer and longer. There are a number of implications on the next presidential race, and this is just a very very very very very cursory overview of some of them. First, a Democratic controlled Congress is a problem for potential Democratic nominees. The Democrats won this year because they were able to bring national issues to local races. Those same national issues will be softened given the fact that Democrats will share the 'blame' for these races with President Bush. Second, consider the statwide races in key states: Florida, Ohio, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Virginia, etc. In some states, the red ones grew redder and blue ones grew bluer; while in other states, they hue became more purple. This will make for an interesting electoral map for both parties in 2008. Dean's 50 state campaign enabled the Democrats to take the fight to the Republicans, but the same won't be true for a presidential contest. Instead, expect significant efforts by both parties in the same states as 2004 and 2000. (This subject will need further analysis). Next, the careers of some potential candidates are no on the brink. George Allen threw his chance out the window with a "Macaca" moment. Rick Santorum was wiped off the map. John Kerry followed his botched 2004 campaign with a botched 2006 joke. So the "Oh Eight Watch" can start. We will be distracted for a while with the Virginia Senate race, the holiday season, the take over in January, and the State of the Union address. However, the potential candidates will be building their teams. (Guiliani was on the radio last night saying that anyone who wants to run for President really needs to have a team togther by February or March). We just need Paul Tagliabue to announce, Hillary Clinton or John McCain... "Is now on the clock."

Sunshine Predictions: 86.7%

Reading political tea leaves is difficult sometimes, but we did very well this year. The State of Sunshine made predictions yesterday in 143 races, getting 124 of them correct -- and two races are close enough to trigger an automatic recount. (The correct races are marked with a ♦ on the link referenced above.) At the federal level, for US House and Senate, we predicted 19 of 20 races correctly, only losing the House 13 race. We predicted Jennings to beat Buchanan, but as of post time, Buchanan was winning by 368 votes - 50.1% to 49.9%. This race will drag for a little while as all absentee and provisional ballots are counted, then as all ballots are re-counted. At the state level, we predicted three of four races correctly, including Alex Sink's victory as the lone Democrat. We incorrectly thought Skip Campbell would beat Bill McCollum. For Charlie Crist and Charlie Bronson, the handwriting on the wall was easy to read. In the Florida Legislature, the State of Sunshine predicted 74 of 80 races correctly. We missed on House 11, a Democratic open seat we thought David Pope would take for the Republicans; House 36, where Republican Sheri McInvale lost her bid for re-election; House 69, a Republican seat Laura Benson lost by 1.2%; House 97, where Republican Susan Goldstein lost her bid for re-election; House 107, a Republican seat lost by Frank Carollo; and House 120, a Republican seat won by Democrat Ron Saunders. We correctly predicted the Republicans losing House 51 and House 52 in Pinellas County, however, so we should get some credit there. In the courts, we predicted 9 of 11 races correctly - losing one race each in the 5th, 6th, and 13th and circuits. In those races, the female candidate lost to a male candidate - breaking a trend this year. In the primary, the only women who lost judicial races, lost to sitting judges. At the County level, we only predicted races in the Bay area. Some of these races were beyond our expertise, but we cast an educated guess anyway and made 9 of 11 correct. We missed one race each in Hernando and Pasco Counties - in both cases, Democrats defeated Republicans. We also picked two other races in Hillsborough County, and made correct predictions there. Finally, we predicted 8 school board races but were only correct three times. One of the races, in Hillsborough County, will be undergoing a recount so we could end up at .500 in these contests. However, given that we didn't follow school board races, batting .375 is a decent average.

Two Charlies, two Bills, and (the Kitchen) Sink

Okay. So I am sure that Alex Sink does not appreciate the 'kitchen' reference, and it does not signify some kind of subconscious misogyny -- but the statewide races proved at least a little bit interesting. U.S. Senate From the Department of Foregone Conclusions, this just in: Bill Nelson won re-election. The polls showed him winning by 20 to 30 points over Katherine Harris. In the end, he sailed to a 22.2% victory. Yawn. He didn't even wait until she conceded -- making his victory speech at 8:30pm, only 30 minutes after the Panhandle polls closed. Nelson 2,859,612 | Harris 1,807,044 Governor One of the brightest spots for Republicans, a third straight victory in the gubernatorial race. Charlie Crist was shown up by 10% or more in a lot of polls, but they numbers grew closer toward the end of the campaign. He ended up beating Jim Davis by 7.1%, not as big as either of Jeb's elections in 1998 or 2002. However, 50,000 fewer Floridians voted for Davis this year than voted for Bill McBride in 2002 -- and interesting result. Crist 2,495,148 | Davis 2,153,797 Chief Financial Officer This may be the biggest surprise, Alex Sink defeats Tom Lee. Big time. Well, 7% is "big time" considering how many of the other races went Republican. The issue here is that both were virtual unknown across the state. Both had about the same amount of money to run television ads. But the ability of Sink to garner almost all of the newspaper endorsements probably gave her this race. She is the first Democrat to serve on the Cabinet since 2002, when Bob Butterworth was forced out by term limits. Sink 2,453,311 | Lee 2,129,695 Attorney General Like Charlie Crist, this is the third time Bill McCollum has run statewide. Like Jim Davis, this was the first effort for Skip Campbell. Voters often go with the names they know, giving McCollum the victory by 5%. McCollum 2,415,302 | Campbell 2,181,996 Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Bronson won re-election. Easily. By 14% His opponent, Eric Copeland, just wasn't a viable candidate. In fact, only one major newspaper endorsed Copeland -- the worst showing of any statewide Democrats. Bronson 2,626,597 | Copeland 1,979,062 So, we have a Democratic Senator in what could be a Democratic Senate. Maybe he will actually be able to do something -- anything -- more than he did during his first term. The Cabinet will be split 3-1, but most Cabinet decisions are not controversial.

Winning a Small Bet on Charlie Crist

Earlier this fall, I made a bet with Catherine Durkin-Robinson at Out in Left Field. She was a proud, loyal supporter of Congressman Jim Davis' bid for governor. I did and do admire both her passionate support and dedication to her cause. Certainly, she was as enthusiastic in her support for Davis as I am in my support for Crist. So we made a bet on the outcome of the race. While it would be fun to bet something wild like having the loser streak across the Florida-Florida State game with the winners' name emblazoned on his/her body -- that seemed a bit too much for a political bet between two bloggers. Instead, I bet her that whoever's candidate lost the election, he or she would write a "congratulatory" post on his or her blog. This, when Charlie Crist won the election, she had to write something nice about the People's Governor. A woman of her word, she did.

First of all, congratulations to Charlie Crist for winning the election and getting the opportunity to serve as Governor of the great state of Florida. How can a progressive put a positive spin on Governor-Elect Crist? I've been tossing and turning and came up with this: Charlie Crist isn't as bad as Jeb. There. That should do it.

Of course, it is not the glowing post from a conservative blogger -- but from a 'liberal' blogger who voted pretty much straight ticket -- this is a good effort. This was fun Kate. I hope we can do a double or nothing in 2008 - across states in Colorado and Florida.

Senate Still Up In The Air, Redux

As the State of Sunshine -- and so many other pundits -- predicted, the Democrats have taken control of the United States House of Representatives. This brings up four words that will make conservatives shudder: Majority Leader Harry Reid. Before the election, the State of Sunshine posted a chart showing 79 key races. Below is a summary of those races. The results used were from the MSNBC website. This post will be updated as the other races are called. The net gain for Democrats is still +4. But the Democratic candidate is still barely winning in the last two states. If these all hold true, the Democrats take control of the Senate 51-49.

State	Rep	Dem
MD	Michael Steele	Ben Cardin	HELD
MO	Sen. Jim Tallent (i)	Claire McKaskill	FLIPPED
MT	Sen. Conrad Burns (i)	Jon Tester	T.B.A.
NJ	Tom Kean, Jr	Sen. Bob Menendez (i)	HELD
OH	Sen. Mike DeWine (i)	Sherrod Brown	FLIPPED
PA	Sen. Rick Santorum (i)	Bob Casey	FLIPPED
RI	Sen. Lincoln Chafee (i)	Sheldon Whitehouse	FLIPPED
TN	Bob Corker	Harold Ford	HELD
VA	Sen. George Allen (i)	Jim Webb	T.B.A.

Senate Still Up In The Air

Control of the United States Senate has not been decided as of "press time." Republicans have lost four seats: Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island. Republicans held Tennessee. Democrats held New Jersey and Maryland. The Montana race has not been called yet, but the Democrat (Tester) looks to be taking that seat as well. That would give the Democrats 50 seats, with Virigina still left to be decided. The Virginia senate race has not been completed. More votes will be counted tomorrow. The Democrat (Webb) leads by 11,528 votes. Out of more than 2.3 million votes cast. Very close. That puts the Senate at 50-50 or possibly a 51-49 Democratic majority. More on this tomorrow.

Democrats Take House -- Updated

As the State of Sunshine -- and so many other pundits -- predicted, the Democrats have taken control of the United States House of Representatives. This brings up three words that will make conservatives shudder: Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Before the election, the State of Sunshine posted a chart showing 79 key races. Below is a summary of those races. The results used were from the MSNBC website. This post will be updated as the other races are called.

State Dist	Rep	Dem
Ariz. 1	Rep. Rick Renzi (i)	Ellen Simon	HELD
Ariz. 5	Rep. J.D. Hayworth (i)	Harry Mitchell	FLIPPED
Ariz. 8	Randy Graf	Gabrielle Giffords	FLIPPED
Cal. 4	Rep. John Doolittle (i)	Charlie Brown	HELD
Cal. 11	Rep. Richard Pombo (i)	Jerry McNerney	FLIPPED
Cal. 50	Rep. Brian Bilbray (i)	Francine Busby	HELD
Colo. 4	Marilyn Musgrave (i)	Angie Paccione	HELD
Colo. 5	Doug Lamborn	Jay Fawcett	HELD
Colo. 6	Rep. Tom Tancredo (i)	Bill Winter	HELD
Colo. 7	Rick O'Donnell	Ed Perlmutter	FLIPPED
Conn. 2	Rep. Rob Simmons (i)	Joe Courtney	RECOUNT
Conn. 4	Rep. Chris Shays (i)	Diane Farrell	HELD
Conn. 5	Rep. Nancy L. Johnson (i)	Chris Murphy	FLIPPED
Fla. 8	Rep. Rick Keller (i)	Charlie Stuart	HELD
Fla. 9	Gus Bilirakis	Phyllis Busansky	HELD
Fla. 13	Vern Buchanan	Christine Jennings	RECOUNT
Fla. 16	Joe Negron	Tim Mahoney	FLIPPED
Fla. 22	Rep. E. Clay Shaw Jr. (i)	Ron Klein	FLIPPED
Ga. 8	Mac Collins	Rep. Jim Marshall (i)	HELD
Ga. 12	Max Burns	Rep. John Barrow (i)	Leaning Dem
Id. 1	Bill Sali	Larry Grant	HELD
Iowa 1	Mike Whalen	Bruce Braley	FLIPPED
Iowa 2	Rep. Jim Leach (i)	Dave Loebsack	FLIPPED
Iowa 3	Jeff Lamberti	Rep. Leonard Boswell (i)	HELD
Ill. 6	Peter Roskam	Tammy Duckworth	HELD
Ill. 8	Dave McSweeney	Rep. Melissa Bean (i)	HELD
Ind. 2	Rep. Chris Chocola (i)	Joe Donnelly	FLIPPED
Ind. 3	Rep. Mark Souder (i)	Tom Hayhurst	HELD
Ind. 7	Eric Dickerson	Rep. Julia Carson (i)	HELD
Ind. 8	Rep. John Hostettler (i)	Brad Ellsworth	FLIPPED
Ind. 9	Rep. Mike Sodrel (i)	Baron Hill	FLIPPED
Kan. 2	Rep. Jim Ryun (i)	Nancy Boyda	FLIPPED
Ky. 2	Rep. Ron Lewis (i)	Mike Weaver	HELD
Ky. 3	Rep. Anne Northup (i)	John Yarmuth	FLIPPED
Ky. 4	Rep. Geoff Davis (i)	Ken Lucas	HELD
Lou. 3	Craig Romero	Rep. Charlie Melancon (i)	HELD
Mich. 7	Tim Walberg	Sharon Renier	HELD
Minn. 1	Rep. Gil Gutknecht (i)	Tim Walz	FLIPPED
Minn. 2	Rep. John Kline (i)	Coleen Rowley	HELD
Minn. 6	Michele Bachmann	Patty Wetterling	HELD
Neb. 3	Adrian Smith	Scott Kleeb	HELD
Nev. 2	Dean Heller	Jill Derby	HELD
Nev. 3	Rep. Jon Porter (i)	Tessa Hafen	HELD
N.C. 8	Rep. Robin Hayes (i)	Larry Kissell	HELD
N.C. 11	Rep. Charles H. Taylor (i)	Heath Shuler	FLIPPED
N.H. 1	Rep. Jeb Bradley (i)	Carol Porter-Shea	FLIPPED
N.H. 2	Rep. Charles Bas (i)	Paul Hodes	FLIPPED
N.J. 7	Rep. Mike Ferguson (i)	Linda Stender	HELD
N.M. 1	Rep. Heather Wilson (i)	Patricia Madrid	RECOUNT
N.Y. 3	Rep. Peter King (i)	Dave Mejias	HELD
N.Y. 19	Rep. Sue Kelly (i)	John Hall	FLIPPED
N.Y. 20	Rep. John Sweeney (i)	Kirsten Gillibrand	FLIPPED
N.Y. 24	Ray Meier	Michael Arcuri	FLIPPED
N.Y. 25	Rep. Jim Walsh (i)	Dan Maffei	HELD
N.Y. 26	Rep. Thomas Reynolds (i)	Jack Davis	HELD
N.Y. 29	Rep. Randy Kuhl (i)	Eric Massa	HELD
Ohio 1	Rep. Steve Chabot (i)	John Cranley	HELD
Ohio 2	Rep. Jean Schmidt (i)	Victoria Wulsin	HELD
Ohio 6	Chuck Blasdel	Charlie Wilson	HELD
Ohio 12	Rep. Pat Tiberi (i)	Bob Shamansky	HELD
Ohio 15	Rep. Deborah Pryce (i)	Mary Jo Kilroy	HELD
Ohio 18	Joy Padgett	Zack Space	FLIPPED
Penn. 4	Rep. Melissa Hart (i)	Jason Altmire	FLIPPED
Penn. 6	Rep. Jim Gerlach (i)	Lois Murphy	HELD
Penn. 7	Rep. Curt Weldon (i)	Joe Sestak	FLIPPED
Penn. 8	Rep. Michael G. Fitzpatrick (i)	Patrick Murphy	FLIPPED
Penn. 10	Rep. Don Sherwood (i)	Chris Carney	FLIPPED
Texas 17	Van Taylor	Rep. Chet Edwards (i)	HELD
Texas 22	Shelley Sekula-Gibbs	Nick Lampson	FLIPPED
Texas 23	Rep. Henry Bonilla (i)	Ciro Rodriguez	HELD
Vt AL	Martha Rainville	Peter Welch	HELD
Va. 2	Rep. Thelma D. Drake (i)	Phil Kellam	HELD
Va. 10	Rep. Frank Wolf (i)	Judy Feder	HELD
Wash. 5	Rep. Cathy McMorris (i)	Peter Goldmark	HELD
Wash. 8	Rep. Dave Reichert (i)	Darcy Burner	Leanding GOP
Wisc. 8	John Gard	Steve Kagen	FLIPPED
WV 1	Chris Wakim	Rep. Alan Mollohan (i)	HELD
WV 2	Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (i)	Mike Callaghan	HELD
Wy. AL	Rep. Barbara Cubin (i)	Gary Trauner	RECOUNT

Florida Legislative Surprises

The Florida Democratic Party was able to accomplish something tonight that it had not done in several elections: win seats. Seven of them, in fact. The State of Sunshine had predicted two of them: House 52, formerly held by Republican Frank Farkas, went to Democrat Bill Heller; and House 51, formerly held by Republican Leslie Waters, went to Democrat Janet Long. We were toying with two others: House 120, held by Republican Ken Sorensen, was captured by Democrat (and former State Senator) Ron Saunders. We had Ron's name penciled in while drafting the prediction post, but switched after looking at campaign finance numbers. In House 39, newly-converted Republican Shari McInvale was obliterated by Scott Randolph (Sidebar: The new representative-elect always makes me think of Blazing Saddles - which has several references to Randolph Scott, a hero of 1950's westerns). The Democrats also picked up the former seat of Republicans Donna Clarke, House 69 was won by Keith Fitzgerald; took the former seat of Republican Gus Barreiro in House 107, and defeated Republican incumbent Susan Goldstein in House 97. The Republican majority in the Florida House went from 85-35 to 78-42. This is important because the GOP no longer has a two-thirds majority, giving the Democratic party more clout. But the biggest surprise of all races -- to some -- was here in the Tampa Bay area: the flip of Republican Senator Jim Sebesta's Senate 16 seat to the Democrats, by a victory for Charlie Justice. This was easily the most expensive state senate race in Florida, maybe the most expensive state legislative race in the nation. It was called the nastiest race by some pundits and media-types. The Republicans didn't lose any State Senate seats, however, as Republican candidate Steve Oelrich managed to win the seat formerly held by Democrat Rod Smith. Oelrich was the Alachua county Sheriff, a GOPer in a largely Democratic county. The Republican majority will still be 26-14, one short of two-thirds. The Democratic tsunami that took control of the U.S. House and maybe the U.S. Senate had rippling effects down the ticket in Florida. The saving grace for the Republican Party of Florida is that the Republicans simply had a significantly larger number of "good" candidates.

Solution to Problems on Election Day

This is really an "aside" post from today's election... but there have yet again been a handful of problems across the country -- most of them, heck nearly all of them are problems related to the opening of precincts. - Machines aren't working right... - One poll worker wipes the electronic card activators... - Optical scan machines aren't working right... Here is The State of Sunshine solution: fewer precincts. Early voting has taught us an important lesson. Voting technology has improved to the point that going to someplace a few blocks from your home is no longer really necessary. Heck, look at the long list of polling places in Hillsborough County alone! Now compare that list to the early voting locations (DOC). Pros: 1 - There would be less of a need for poll workers. This would allow local Supervisors of Elections to provide better training. Most of the workers are retirees, who are really the only ones who can devote the time to training before hand and all day on election day. These people deserve our thanks and gratitude. However, they also provide a dilemma for elections supervisors because of the level of training necessary; especially the learning curve involved with new technology. 2 - With fewer locations, there would be more machines in each location. This reduces the chances of not having enough working machines for the voters. It also spreads the demand out -- many precincts have few voters while others nearby will be inundated; spreading the supply of machines to the demand would make it easier to vote. 3 - Reduced costs to the taxpayers. The Supervisors of Elections would not have to pay rent for some facilities and would not have to hire as many workers. While this amount of savings may be small compared to overall budgets, the fiscal conservative side of us likes the concept. 4 - The technology that can be used during early voting to prevent duplicate voting would enable elections supervisors to allow people to vote anywhere in their county. Vote close to work, close to your kids schools, or close to home. Your choice. We at State of Sunshine are major proponents of early voting -- but at least bringing some of the convenience of voting to Election Day would make voting easier. Cons: 1 - There could be an argument about disenfranchising minority voters. Yes, minorities tend to be less able to travel larger distances to vote. However, because we already know this is an issue - Supervisors of Elections can plan accordingly. Supervisors could work with minority community leaders to ensure there are enough accessible polling places in these communities. Additionally, some of the cost savings (see above) could be used to provide free public transit in these communities to transport minority voters to polling places. 2 - Making it easier to vote is not good for Republicans. I would argue quite the contrary. The GOP has perfect the art of GOTV (Get Out The Vote). From microtargeting to constant pushing using phone banks and precinct walks, Republican volunteers are able to turn out Republican voters in a big big big way. Making it even easier to vote would only add to this advantage. (It's like the way cutting taxes actually increases tax collections). Anyway, we know this will never come to fruition. But it would solve some of the problems, and make voting a whole lot easier. Of course, it could cause problems for exit pollsters... but that's another story.

State of Sunshine's Florida Election Predictions

During the primary, the State of Sunshine made some predictions. While we did better than 50%, it was not the best showing. In the general election, Robert C at Interstate 4 Jamming, Smitty over at Smitty's World and South of the Suwanee have posted their picks. So, let's take a look at Florida's races and predict some winners: Predictions of note: - Dems 3 GOP Congressional seats - GOP picks up 1 Dem State Senate seat and 1 Dem State House seat - Dems pick up 1 GOP State Senate seat and 2 GOP State House seats - Women candidates dominate judicial elections ----------------------- THE PREDICTIONS ----------------------- U.S. Senate: Bill Nelson (D) (i) ♦ U.S. Congress District 1: Jeff Miller (R) (i) ♦ U.S. Congress District 4: Ander Crenshaw (R) (i) ♦ U.S. Congress District 5: Ginny Brown-Waite (R) (i) ♦ U.S. Congress District 6: Cliff Stearns (R) (i) ♦ U.S. Congress District 7: John Mica (R) (i) ♦ U.S. Congress District 8: Ric Keller (R) (i) ♦ U.S. Congress District 9: Gus Bilirakis (R) ♦ U.S. Congress District 10: Bill Young (R) (i) ♦ U.S. Congress District 11: Kathy Castor (D) ♦ U.S. Congress District 12: Adam Putnam (R) (i) ♦ U.S. Congress District 13: Christine Jennings (D) [Recount] U.S. Congress District 14: Connie Mack (R) (i) ♦ U.S. Congress District 15: Dave Weldon (R) (i) ♦ U.S. Congress District 16: Tim Mahoney (D) ♦ U.S. Congress District 17: Kendrick Meek (D) (i) ♦ U.S. Congress District 18: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) (i) ♦ U.S. Congress District 21: Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R) (i) ♦ U.S. Congress District 22: Ron Klein (D) ♦ U.S. Congress District 24: Tom Feeney (R) (i) ♦ U.S. Congress District 25: Mario Diaz-Balart (R) (i) ♦ Governor: Charlie Crist (R) ♦ CFO: Alex Sink (D) ♦ Attorney General: Skip Campbell (D) Agriculture Commissioner: Charlie Bronson (R) (i) ♦ State Senate District 8: Jim King (R) (i) ♦ State Senate District 10: Ronda Storms (R) ♦ State Senate District 12: Victor Crist (R) (i) ♦ State Senate District 14: Steve Oelrich (R) ♦ State Senate District 16: Charlie Justice (D) ♦ State Senate District 18: Arthenia Joyner (D) ♦ State Senate District 22: Lee Constantine (R) (i) ♦ State Senate District 28: Ken Pruitt (R) (i) ♦ State Senate District 30: Ted Deutch (D) ♦ State Senate District 32: Jeremy Ring (D) ♦ State Senate District 36: Alex Diaz de la Portilla (R) (i) ♦ State Senate District 38: Alex Villalobos (R) (i) ♦ State House District 3: Holly Benson (R) (i) ♦ State House District 5: Don Brown (R) (i) ♦ State House District 6: Jimmy Patronis (R) ♦ State House District 11: David Pope (R) State House District 14: Terry Fields (D) (i) ♦ State House District 15: Audrey Gibson (D) (i) ♦ State House District 22: Larry Cretul (R) (i) ♦ State House District 23: Chuck Chestnut ♦ State House District 24: Dennis Baxley (R) (i) ♦ State House District 26: Pat Patterson (R) (i) ♦ State House District 27: Joyce Cusack (D) (i) ♦ State House District 28: Dorothy Hukil (R) (i) ♦ State House District 31: Mitch Needelman (R) (i) ♦ State House District 32: Bob Allen (R) (i) ♦ State House District 33: Sandy Adams (R) (i) ♦ State House District 35: Dean Cannon (R) (i) ♦ State House District 36: Sheri McInvale (R) (i) State House District 39: Geraldine Thompson (D) ♦ State House District 40: Andy Gardiner (R) (i) ♦ State House District 41: Stephen Precourt (R) ♦ State House District 42: Hugh Gibson (R) (i) ♦ State House District 44: Robert Schenck ♦ State House District 45: Tom Anderson (R) (i) ♦ State House District 47: Kevin Ambler (R) (i) ♦ State House District 48: Peter Nehr (R) ♦ State House District 49: John Quinones (R) (i) ♦ State House District 50: Ed Hooper ♦ State House District 51: Janet Long (D) ♦ State House District 52: Bill Heller (D) ♦ State House District 53: Rick Kriseman (D) ♦ State House District 54: Jim Frishe (R) ♦ State House District 56: Trey Traviesa (R) (i) ♦ State House District 57: Faye Culp (R) (i) ♦ State House District 58: Mike Schionti (D) ♦ State House District 59: Betty Reed (D) ♦ State House District 60: Ed Homan (R) (i) ♦ State House District 61: Will Weatherford (R)* ♦ State House District 62: Rich Glorioso (R) (i) ♦ State House District 63: Seth McKeel (R) ♦ State House District 69: Laura Benson (R) State House District 70: Doug Holder (R) ♦ State House District 71: Michael Grant (R) ♦ State House District 73: Nick Thompson (R) ♦ State House District 76: Garrett Richter (R) ♦ State House District 77: Denise Grimsley (R) (i) ♦ State House District 79: Frank Atkisson (R) (i) ♦ State House District 81: Gayle Harrell (R) (i) ♦ State House District 82: William Snyder (R) ♦ State House District 83: Carl Domino (R) (i) ♦ State House District 85: Shelly Vana (D) (i) ♦ State House District 86: Maria Sachs (D) ♦ State House District 87: Adam Hasner (R) (i) ♦ State House District 91: Ellen Bogdanoff (R) (i) ♦ State House District 93: Perry Thurston (D) ♦ State House District 97: Susan Goldstein (R) (i) State House District 99: Elaine Schwartz (D) ♦ State House District 102: Manuel Riera (R)* ♦ State House District 104: Yolly Roberson (D) (i) ♦ State House District 107: Frank Carollo (R) State House District 108: Ronald Brisé (D) ♦ State House District 109: Dorothy Bendross-Mindingall (D) (i) ♦ State House District 110: Rene Garcia (R) (i) ♦ State House District 111: Marco Rubio (R) (i) ♦ State House District 112: David Rivera (R) (i) ♦ State House District 113: Carlos Lopez-Cantera (R) (i) ♦ State House District 116: Marcelo Llorente (R) (i) ♦ State House District 119: Juan Zapata (R) (i) ♦ State House District 120: David Rice (R) * = These names do not appear on the ballot as they are replacements for candidates that withdrew after the state deadline. (NOTE: I believe The Florida Democratic Party has lost State House seats in every election since 1982. Only the three italicized predictions above -- 11, 51, & 52 -- would be seats that change hands, all other races the incumbent party retains the seat.) 5th Judicial Circuit Group 29: Sandy Hawkins 5th Judicial Circuit Group 31: Daniel Merritt, Jr. ♦ 6th Judicial Circuit Group 9: Chris Helinger ♦ 6th Judicial Circuit Group 32: LeAnne Lake 10th Judicial Circuit Group 27: Ernest Jones ♦ 12th Judicial Circuit Group 21: Rochelle Taylor Curley ♦ 13th Judicial Circuit Group 32: Betsy Hapner 13th Judicial Circuit Group 43: Kimberly Ferndandez ♦ 13th Judicial Circuit Group 44: Emily Peacock ♦ 13th Judicial Circuit Group 45: Ashley Brooke Moody ♦ Pasco County Court Group 6: Anne Wansboro ♦ Pasco County Court Group 7: Candy VanDerCar ♦ NOTE: In this year's primary, the only time a female judicial candidate did not either win the election or make it into a run off was if - A) There were more than one female candidates or B) She was taking on an incumbent judge. Historically, female judicial candidates tend to do significantly better than their male opponents. Constitutional Amendment 1: No Constitutional Amendment 3: Yes ♦ Constitutional Amendment 4: Yes ♦ Constitutional Amendment 6: Yes ♦ Constitutional Amendment 7: Yes ♦ Constitutional Amendment 8: Yes ♦ Hernando County Commission District 2: Nancy Robinson (R) Hernando County Commission District 4: Dave Russell (R) ♦ Hillsborough County Commission District 1: Rose Ferlita (R) ♦ Hillsborough County Commission District 3: Kevin White (D) ♦ Hillsborough County Commission District 4: Al Higginbotham (R) ♦ Hillsborough County Commission District 5: Jim Norman (R) (i) ♦ Hillsborough County Commission District 7: Mark Sharpe (R) (i) ♦ Manatee County Commission District 6: Carol Whitmore (R) ♦ Pasco County Commission District 4: Steve Simon (R) Pinellas County Commission District 2: Calvin Harris (D) (i) ♦ Pinellas County Commission District 6: John Morroni (R) (i) ♦ Hernando County School Board District 1: Richard McDermott Hernando County School Board District 3: John Druzbick Hillsborough County School Board District 6: April Griffin [Recount] Manatee County School Board District 4: Bob Gause ♦ Pasco County School Board District 1: Cathi Compton Pasco County School Board District 3: Michele Chamberlin Pinellas County School Board District 3: Peggy O'Shea ♦ Pinellas County School Board District 7: Mary Brown (i) ♦ Hillsborough County Soul & Water Conservation Board: Dennis Carlton ♦ Hillsborough County Straw Poll Referendum: Yes ♦

Poll Closing Times Across the Nation

Florida polls close at 7:00pm (EST) for most of the state and 8:00pm (EST) for parts of the Panhandle. Teagan Goddard's Political Wire has a list of the poll closing times for all 50 states. This is helpful if you are watching the U.S. House and U.S. Senate races.

6:00 pm Indiana (East), Kentucky (East) 7:00 pm Florida (Peninsula), Kentucky (West), Indiana (West), Vermont, Georgia, New Hampshire, Virginia, South Carolina 7:30 pm North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia 8:00 pm Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida (Panhandle), Illinois, Kansas, Massachusetts, Maine, Michigan, Missouri, Mississippi, Maryland, New Jersey, New Hampshire, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas 8:30 pm Arkansas 9:00 pm Arizona, Colorado, Lousiana, Minnesota, New Mexico, Nebraska, New York, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, Wyoming 10:00 pm Idaho, Iowa, Montana, Nevada, North Dakota, Oregon, Utah 11:00 pm California, Hawaii, Washington 12:00 am Alaska

It could be a long night as returns come in.

Florida Forecast: Rain - Could Lower Turnout

Just before polls open in Florida, rain has already started to fall (click the picture above to see the Bay News 9 Doppler Radar). From watching several morning weather reports, it looks like the Panhandle and North Florida will see the most rain - it looks like it will rain most of the day from Pensacola to Jacksonville. The Bay area has a 60% chance of rain at 10:00am, a 70% chance at 3:00pm, and a 50% chance at 7:00pm (according to ABC Action News). The GOP has worked hard to drive the turnout, but polls show that Democrats are still more enthused about voting this year (by just under 10%). That means Republican voters might be slightly more likely to stay home in the rain. This could have serious effects on close statewide races, such as the race for C.F.O. and Attorney General. It could also spell trouble for the 13th, 16th, and 22nd Congressional districts. ----------------------------------- Robert C. at Interstate 4 Jamming posted about the effects of rain on turnout. He had an earlier post about a study showing that bad weather historically drags down Democratic turnout. CNN had a brief forecast for the national picture.